(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
France's Fifth Republic from 1958 was tailor made for and by General Charles de Gaulle. He believed that a country with more cheeses than days must have a strong leader – who stood and gave guidance to the people's parliamentarism. Since 1965, when the presidential office was elected directly by the people and no longer by the Senate, they created Gaulle's reality show: Anyone, as long as they can maneuver rivals and enemies, can advance their candidacy for the stronghold of power – and move right into the castles the decapitated kings left behind. This is how flamboyant princes came to power, such as Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, Francois Mitterrand and Nicolas Sarkozy. Today's French president, the socialist Francois Hollande, could, like all his predecessors, stand for another period. But record low support for the polls took his courage. France needed a new debate, he said. New candidates with new ideas. It may be Holland's best aftermath. For today, three months before the first round of presidential elections, French politics is witnessing a generational shift. The traditional parties on the left and right are in ruins. Since 1974, the socialists and conservatives have smashed each other to death in a political ping-pong match – very entertaining for observers of French politics, but to the detriment of the rest, with budget deficits and unemployment as a result. Now the party is over. They don't get more chances. The people want something new. And they've got it – to the degrees.
A wonder. The most popular on the left is Jean-Luc Mélenchon's movement "France that cannot be suppressed". On the other side of the political spectrum we find Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's "Get up, France". The Green's Yannick Jadot and well-known Front Nationals Marine Le Pen make the race complete, wide and varied.
But then came the surprise. As late as this fall, the young "mother-in-law's dream" Emmanuel Macron threw in a brand new, moving move: "On the way!" (Working !). Many snort at the short wonderboy with a charming "hair on his tongue" – which in French refers to a slight lesping, a sign of honor in a people with a language spoken in the corner of the mouth. Macron's support is simply a miracle. Like Napoleon's 100-day journey from Nice to Paris in 1815, the 38-year-old Macron has gone from being the small, disloyal and opportunistic snob who stabbed President Hollande in the back, to becoming the favorite of the whole people. The latest opinion polls suggest a landslide victory in the second round of the presidential election (the election has two rounds, where the two candidates with the greatest support meet in number two). If he meets Marine Le Pen in the second and decisive round, he will knock out by well over a 60 percent margin, according to opinion polls. The same thing happens if he meets Le Pen's opponent on the left, the popular proletarian Mélenchon. Emmanuel Macron has managed what the center-right candidate Francois Bayrou never managed – to appear as a credible alternative to the right-left axis.
Line dance. But the race is close, and Macron's biggest challenge is to get to the second round, out of a total of six candidates who have a good chance of this on Sunday 23 April. That Marine Le Pen is best placed in the polls to secure a place in the final on Sunday 7 May, means that voters must think tactically: Which candidate will have the greatest chance of gathering the people and saving France from Le Pen? A form of electoral political drama is on the way, because many will vote for the candidate who has the greatest chance of winning over Le Pen. France is facing the most exciting presidential election ever.
Like Napoleon's 100-day journey from Nice to Paris in 1815, the 38-year-old Macron has gone from being the small, disloyal and opportunistic snob who stabbed President Hollande in the back, to becoming the favorite of the whole people.
Janteloven is not just Norwegian. Macron's rivals use every opportunity to point out his lack of experience, populism and "blingbling tactics". The question is what Macron offers: It is not yet good to say, because his concrete political program will not be published until mid-February. Until now, he is known for President Hollande's brutal "Macron package", which introduced flexibility in the labor market and liberalization of protected sectors. He has also stated that he wants to continue France's solid public sector as well as the social dialogue, and promote a strong French voice in the world. "Blah, blah, blah," many will say. But carefully planned strategic leaks from his political program show the contours of a line dance between right-wing and left-wing politics: Macron wants to renew and modernize, without tearing down. He wants to keep the much-discussed 35-hour working week, but give greater freedom to negotiate working hours sector by sector, company by company. He wants to continue and strengthen the reduction in the sky-high employer contributions that have weighed on French competitiveness. In order not to increase the budget deficit, he will turn tax deductions into tax relief. It gives companies better predictability. In other words, Macron tries to prove himself business-friendly, while at the same time being concerned with a strong social safety net. He was born a socialist, he says, but likes to take Uber and cheer on the sharing economy because it captures paralyzed long-term unemployed and gives them valuable work experience. He accuses the Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon of unilaterally focusing on the distribution of goods as opposed to production: "Values must be created before they can be distributed" is his mantra.
New dynamics. While others compete to blacken international co-operation and throw petrol on the Brussels fire, Macron highlights EU co-operation as the foremost arena for finding solutions that address the threats of globalization. "We must not leave the criticism of the EU to the EU's opponents," he slammed into large crowds. When India and China dump the steel market, they must be punished – and that hard. Macron will renegotiate the Maastricht Treaty, which Mélenchon also demands, and force Germany to increase consumption or accept that other countries increase budget deficits and debt. In an admirable way, he appears as a counterpoint to Theresa May and Donald Trump by making intensified EU cooperation a winning cause – an attitude that can make Norwegian politicians throw up just at the thought. If he succeeds and wins, it will indisputably contribute to a completely new dynamic in Europe.
Many strings. In addition, Macron is almost a party to listen to. With precise, quick words, he does not only speak in short, absolute and national romantic soundbites, but takes the time to present complex political and economic reasoning. And he does this without constant reference to his own excellence, as other French politicians so often resort to.
Macron is undoubtedly elitist. Philosophy studies and the legendary Science Po (political science in Paris, where Støre was known to go), followed by the classic elite academy École nationale d'administration, the national school of administration where all top bureaucrats, diplomats and business leaders have gone.
The woman in his life arouses great attention. Already as a 15-year-old, he must have fallen in love with his 24-year-old theater teacher in middle school. She saw the genius and potential in him – and should be his closest adviser. Macron is also a skilled pianist and skilled in kickboxing. This is how he plays on many strings – and if he is elected, he can surpass Obama and Stoltenberg in both elegance and media coverage.
In an admirable way, he appears as a counterpoint to May and Trump by making intensified EU cooperation a winning cause.
Fifth Republic. The biggest objection to Macron is that he does not have a political party that can advance his views in the French National Assembly. As of today, Marine Le Pen has only one representative, but a broad, nationwide party network. Macron's "On the Road!" will run electoral rolls in all districts during the June parliamentary elections. For without a clear majority in the National Assembly, his power of action is weakened. Still – General de Gaulle's intention with the Fifth Republic was just that. And both Mitterrand and Chirac governed the country quite well, in retrospect, with their political arch-rival as prime minister and parliamentary majority.
also read Revolution in headwinds.
