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War of the future

We are facing a paradigm shift in how wars are fought, triggered by military technology in galloping development.




(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)

PW Singer and August Cole. Ghost Fleet – A Novel of the Next World War. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2015

What will the future war look like? That's the question Peter W. Singer and August Cole are trying to answer in their first foray into the novel genre. Both are experienced researchers, and on several occasions have defined the understanding of new phenomena in military technology and organization. Ghost Fleet – A Novel of the Next World War is in many ways a classic war thriller. What makes it interesting is the way it reflects on technological innovations, and the implications for how wars are fought and national defense organized.
Electromagnetic cannons that shoot projectiles over seven times the speed of sound, laser weapons, bullets that change direction and find preprogrammed targets, drone aircraft that select the targets for their missiles, seeglasses that analyze the environment in real-time, and soldiers who survive on little other than stimulating pills and chewing gum: The result is experienced as science fiction, despite all of this technology being developed today.
The story is set in the relatively near future, and spins on real weapon systems and political developments we recognize from recent years. The main characters on the American side got their first military missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and another main character, the warship USS Zumwalt, was baptized last year and is currently under test in the US Navy.

Dystopia. Ghost Fleet not only points in the future, but is clearly positioned within the conflict lines that dominate politics today. As history begins, China has become the world's largest economy, owning over nine trillion dollars of US debt, and is governed by a technocratic regime put together by generals and businessmen who have come to power following a coup against the Communist Party. At the same time, US shale gas production has declined, and the US has turned energy dependency to exporter status, including China. Access to energy is still a source of conflicts that have produced an increasing number of failed states in the world. Environmentally friendly alternatives have also created conflict, as the technology relies on rare minerals.

A Chinese researcher interrogates a Russian defector in Shanghai using electrodes attached directly to the brain through drilled holes in the skull.

The United States is in decline as an empire and the world's leading superpower. A quote by Sun Tzu in the first part can be read both as a description of the situation and a critique of current American foreign policy: "You can fight a war for a long time, or you can make your nation strong. You can not do both. » A liberal critique of the surveillance state is also implicit in the text. Snowden's revelations about the NSA's backdoors in commercial software are suggested as the turning point that led to the Silicon Valley companies losing their dominance online when consumers turned their backs on them. Nevertheless, the authors predict an expansion of the current surveillance regime, with fly-sized surveillance drones, drinks equipped with microphones, the ubiquitous seethe glasses that can record everything they see, and spies equipped with implanted antennas and microchips.
The focus throughout the book is on the military and military technology, but we also get to hint at the political reality behind it. It can not be described as anything other than dystopian, seen with today's eyes. Nevertheless, the characters take the realities for granted with the same obviousness that one always perceives one's own time. Given that history is set in a very realistic, near future based on current trends, one may ask: Have we already reached dystopia today? Are we so adaptable that only the distance that the science fiction genre provides can produce the recognition of how wrong it is?

Human vs. machine. The war itself takes place on and around Hawaii, on the deepest seabed, in cyberspace and in orbit around the Earth. It is a classic war scenario with heavy references to both Chinese and American military history. The beginning of the war is completely parallel to the American experience of World War II. Most of the US Pacific Fleet is sunk in Pearl Harbor. The US Air Force stationed on the Japanese island of Okinawa, where the Americans have been present since 1945, is decimated on the ground in a Russian air strike, an imitation of the US Doolittle raid on Tokyo in 1942. Sun Tzu and The Art of War runs like a red thread through history, and the historical admiral Zheng He serves as a role model for the Chinese admiral who has command in the last great battle at sea. Despite the focus on new technology, history is conveyed as the key to understanding military strategy – also in the future.
Ghost Fleet presents mainly a positive view of innovations in military technology, but the classic conflict between man and machine is still very much present. Vizthe glasses, a further development of google glasses, triggers an even more intense version of the generation gap we have seen with smartphones. Now the students do not even have to listen – they can record the lecture until later as they disappear into a simulated reality at their own discretion. If they need to perform a complicated task, they can only pick up instructions on the glasses. Presence, skills, yes, even memory have become superfluous for the new generation.

Of course, the advanced technology is the first thing that fails when the war breaks out, and the older generation has to step in with yesterday's manual skills.

Of course, the advanced technology is the first thing that fails when the war breaks out, and the older generation has to step in with yesterday's manual skills. Not only has the technology become so complex that repairs and emergency solutions become difficult along the way; one has actually lost control of what it does. Ghost Fleet describes a military that is extremely high-tech and with very expensive investments. The contrast to the use of tenders and contractors at the lowest price is commented on through the voice of sailors who have to deal with poorly functioning equipment. The cheap microchips from China that are found in almost all modern equipment, turn out to be compromised and under the control of the Chinese "Hacker militia" – a new branch of the country's military organization.

Is this what we want? The most frightening thing about the book, however, is the presentation of the so-called improved interrogation techniques. A Chinese researcher interrogates a Russian defector in Shanghai using electrodes attached directly to the brain through drilled holes in the skull. The imaginary technology is based on recent research – "Braingate" – which seeks to facilitate so that people who are paralyzed or have amputated body parts can control computers and prostheses. «Data that can be monitored can also be changed. Just as in a computer, so too in the signals in your brain – we can change your commands for movements, your memories, and, most importantly, your will, »explains Dr. Qi. The Russian spy is confused. Has he said anything important? Are the thoughts his own or the interrogator's? Is the pain in the body real or a result of direct manipulation of the brain's signals?
Ghost Fleet is both a driving thriller and a fascinating insight into a probable technological future. Nevertheless, it succumbs to the temptation to present an ideal version of a future war. Politically, it expresses a worldview that can be summed up as liberal realism. The war described is between more or less equal superpowers. Accidental damage to small third parties and civilians is described to a small extent, perhaps due to the optimistic idea that the new technology should limit such damage. And perhaps even more interesting, how would the described technology work in the kind of asymmetric warfare we have seen more often in recent decades? For us, it may be a new thought, but the people of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen are in no way alien to the sound of drones and the uncertainty that follows – do they carry cameras or weapons?
More striking to us here at home is that the Norwegian arms industry, more specifically the Kongsberg Group, figures as developers behind some of the technology mentioned. One example is missiles that are sent up without targets and control, and which themselves choose where to strike after a pre-programmed list of possible enemy targets. Few other countries of Norway's modest size are involved in this arms race. Nevertheless, the public debate on whether this is a development we should promote is largely non-existent. This may be because the understanding of how the new technology will work in practice is lacking. Ghost Fleet is a relatively simple and entertaining way to gain the necessary insight to be able to participate in such a debate.


Aarseth is a political scientist and regular contributor to Ny Tid
tori.aarseth@gmail.com

Tori Aarseth
Tori Aarseth
Aarseth is a political scientist and a regular journalist at Ny Tid.

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