American Dr. Rex J. Fleming writes that there is a greater threat than global warming if climate change gives us a new cold season. Unlike the heated climate debate, more CO2, no less, will be needed in future colder times.
Fleming – who has 50 years of research behind him – was a supporter of global warming theory, but left the fold and became a climate realist. We can also call him a "cooling alarmist." As a mathematician with a doctorate in meteorology and the title "Atmospheric Scientist" he was employed by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) in the United States. He has received several awards for his work and has held numerous assignments related to climate and meteorology. In 2005 he started the consultancy firm Global Aerospace with measurements of water vapor on commercial aircraft.
This year 300 was warmer globally than it is today.
Central to his previous book, Exposure (2012), was the point that global warming was real, but that CO2 was not the cause. Fleming's new book still claims that CO2 cannot explain climate change, but that natural variations and the activity of the sun are the cause of temperature and climate change.
Ice Age and CO2
The book opens with a review of scientific discoveries and the universe – which God created, according to Fleming – and its expansion. He then goes through historical events, measurements and research from the Ice Age to the current climate debate. It cannot be proved that CO2 is the cause of climate change, Fleming insists.
As an example, Fleming points to the ice ages and CO2concentration in each individual ice age, where there is no correlation between CO2levels. Tests of ice cores have yielded 420 years of data from Antarctica indicating that temperature changes came first, much later, changes in CO2. His claim is confirmed, among other things, by a French study showing that CO2changes did not occur until 200–800 years after ice melt
In the cryogenic era (850-635 million years ago) CO2concentration 100 times higher than today's measurements. During warmer periods, the sun's magnetic field was more powerful or the Earth's albedo (reflectivity) reduced – again without any correlation between CO2 and Earth's surface temperatures. An increase in temperature is due to other conditions.
The atmosphere is "a chaotic system and not exactly predictable," Fleming writes. Natural and difficult to predict variations are observed, not CO2-make changes.
Cosmic rays (primarily protons from exploding stars) form isotopes in the Earth's atmosphere when the sun's magnetic field is not strong enough to deflect them. The cosmic rays and the sun with its sunspots and solar storms affect the temperature of our globe. The isotope values of beryllium-10 (10Be) and carbon-14 (14C) are high when the sun's magnetic field is weak, as during the small ice age (1645-1715, according to Fleming's figures – scientists argue about when it occurred).
It is interesting to read about the consequences of the different cold and warm periods for life on Earth. Discoveries of plant seeds, sediments in lakes, samples from volcanoes and other sources confirm the warm periods. For example, this year it was 300 warmer globally than today. Later came a colder period where the lack of sunlight and drought resulted in unsuccessful crops and famines. In the Middle Ages it became warmer again, with long summers and good crops. Studies of 6000 boreholes from all continents tell of higher temperatures than today, before the small ice age, which resulted in a hungry Europe accustomed to higher temperatures and thus poorly adapted to colder times.
The book should be written for lay people, but I have rarely missed better knowledge of astrophysics as strongly as when I read it. Fleming will, of course, provide evidence of his claims, and he does so thoroughly with examples from research. So thorough that he loses the ordinary reader (me!) In parts of the book.
It cannot be proven that CO2 is the cause of climate change,
He explains scientific theories and has plenty of references after each chapter as well as a full supplement. But book pages packed with equations and models do not make it easy to be sure whether what one is reading is hanging or not. On the other hand, if the reader has basic knowledge of astrophysics and knows Planck's radiation law, the Lorentz force (which acts on an electric charge in an electromagnetic field) combined with the Earth's albedo, you will probably benefit from some chapters more than the undersigned.
But the book is sometimes easy to read and popular science. It becomes almost in the easiest way when Fleming uses the chance to criticize everything from IPCC and research cheating for politicians and the press. He mentions global interests, NGOs and more in his theories on how “CO2-the myth ”arose and gained a foothold. Also about who has something to gain from the climate hysteria. Fleming may be right in many of the statements, but only scratches the surface at too many (interesting) points. He tries to embrace a lot in one and the same book, and I can not mention everything here.
When CO2The theory has been reviewed and refuted in the book, Fleming concentrates on how to prepare for upcoming natural climate change from the Sun's activity, cosmic radiation, and the changing positions of the Sun (and the planets).
Hunger and crises
The authorities are criticized by Fleming for having made CO2 to an enemy when CO2 truly is a prerequisite for life on Earth. If one doubles CO2concentration, at the same time, net productivity of herbaceous plants will increase by 30-50 percent – trees and woody plants by 50-80 percent. In this context, we need higher levels of CO2 if it gets colder – we'll get enough food.
If you look at the periods of reduced sunspot activity and follow the 350-year cycle presented by, among others, the American scientist KG McCracken (B.Sc., PhD, DSc) at the University of Maryland2, the next period of reduced solar activity will occur around 2030. Fleming is unsure how cool it can be, but thinks it can be anything less or equivalent sunspot activity during the Dalton minimum period, or equivalent a Maunder minimum.
This gives temperatures that can cause reduced crops and lead to hunger and crises across the globe, Fleming warns. He points out the importance of access to fuel, water and food for the entire population of the Earth and the construction of dams, which in total are reminiscent of disaster preparedness.
Fleming writes that a good preparation "will be able to save many lives, and you can help – contact local politicians, friends and neighbors and tell them about the urgent need".
- Do I dare knock at the neighbor and announce an upcoming ice age?
More books on climate? Read:
Doomsday stories about the climate (The Unhabitable Earth) |
The personal climate crisis (Scenes from the heart – Greta Thunberg) |
AS Norway: A capitalist actor, without sufficient conscience (about Svein Hammer's book The future of Norway)
1. Caillon et al. (2003). «Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across term III". Science, 299, 1728–1731.
2. McCracken, KG, J. Beer, and F. Steinhilber (2014). «Evidence for planetary forcing of cosmic ray intensity and solar activity over the past 9400 years". Solar Physics, 289.