Climate change, natural disasters and flight

AFGHANISTAN

(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)

Of: Nina Birkeland

There are more people on the run now than ever since World War II. Most are driven by natural disasters and climate change. The most up-to-date figures show that in 2013, 22 millions were displaced by extreme weather, floods and earthquakes. There are more than twice as many who had to flee because of war and conflict that year, according to documentation from the Norwegian Refugee Council. Displacement due to natural disasters and climate change is a growing and global problem. Ninety percent of the 22 millions were due to weather-related natural disasters. And these disasters can be seen not only in the context of normal variation in weather patterns, but also in relation to long-term global climate change that causes more frequent extreme weather in the future.

2015 a fate year. The figures are a clear message that we can and must do more to prevent and reduce the consequences of climate change and natural disasters. Much human suffering and material destruction could have been prevented with very specific measures. Last week, the UN organized a world conference in Sendai, Japan, to put in place a new global framework for the prevention and reduction of natural disasters. They agreed on a new agreement, with clear objectives. A big downside is that no commitments were made for how the world's states will achieve these goals in the 15 years to 2030.

This year, the new climate convention will also be finalized and finally ready for signing in Paris in December. In both of these processes, the Norwegian Refugee Council has worked purposefully to include the rights of those fleeing climate change and natural disasters. In the agreement from Sendai we have succeeded in getting escape and the risk of escape included in the text. Now, we will continue to work with our partners in influencing efforts to bring about positive change for those who are likely to flee in the future – for the words to come into action.

Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable to them due to widespread poverty, lack of development, poorly developed infrastructure and environmental degradation.

Poor countries in Asia most at risk. 19 of the 22 million who were forced to flee live in Asia, and 85 per cent of the total 22 million live in developing countries. The Norwegian Refugee Council's research center Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) in Geneva has concluded that the number of people displaced by natural disasters and climate change has quadrupled since the 1970s. The risk of losing a home, earning a living and having to flee has doubled in 40 years. This development must be seen in the context of population growth, poverty, and an ever-increasing concentration of people in the world's urban areas, especially in poor countries.

Natural disasters and climate change hit hardest in poor countries without good systems for preparedness and prevention. The human suffering is worst, the risk of flight greatest, and the economic consequences most fatal. Therefore, it is crucial to make the poor countries more resilient in the face of increasingly extreme weather and other dangerous natural phenomena as a result of climate change.

This week, Afghanistan Week is being held in several places in the country. Afghanistan is one of the 25 countries that NRC works in. After decades of war and conflict, there are over 2,7 million Afghans living as refugees in other countries, and over 700 on the run in their own country. In addition to war and conflict, earthquakes, floods and droughts are important causes of flight.

Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change, and is particularly vulnerable to them due to widespread poverty, lack of development, poorly developed infrastructure and environmental degradation that has been exacerbated by the war over the past 20 years. Afghanistan is ranked number 170 out of 178 on an index that measures countries' vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate change. 75 percent of the country is prone to desertification. Increase in average temperature leads to more and unfamiliar snowmelt. Climate change has also led to more rain in and out of the traditional rainy season. We see that the annual floods are getting bigger and more unpredictable. Despite the fact that Afghanistan is so exposed to the effects of climate change, the country's environmental protection authorities have not yet put in place a national strategy for adaptation to climate change.

Think globally, act locally. How can we help Afghans adapt and live with climate change and natural disasters? The old slogan think globally, act locally is at least as relevant today as before. Norway must commit itself to future climate emissions, and we will report national climate targets for the period after 2020 to the UN Climate Secretariat this spring. In the Norwegian targets, we must commit to a real reduction in emissions. Norway must also help to support and ensure that obligations related to the new framework from Sendai for the prevention and reduction of natural disasters come into place. These can be two steps in the right direction to reduce the risk of flight caused by climate change and natural disasters in Afghanistan and the rest of the world.

Birkeland is a senior adviser in the Norwegian Refugee Council.
nina.birkeland@nrc.no

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