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Mankind 2050 

2050 is just 33 years ahead of us; The 33 year behind us is Orwell's 1984. Much has happened since then – and much will happen before 2050.


West of Jondal in Hordaland lies Torsnes, named after the Nordic war god Tor with the hammer. This was a center in the Viking era from 800 to 1050, only 250 years. Why so short? The inhabitants of the place had great success with expeditions and colonization – Gardarike in Russia, Iceland, Greenland, Vinland in America. And then: for. Why?

Because they had no future. The villain Loke had killed the good Balder – right next to Torsnes is Belsnes, or Baldursnes. They were doomed to their difficulty. Christianity comes in with bad Satan and good God, restoring hope. The End.

From 1984 to 2050. The Soviet Union had no future: Communism was undefined. Entering Orthodox Christianity – Putin is a true believer – hope is restored.

The United States has no future: "Allies" refuse to fight American wars, and US capitalism increases inequalities with reduced growth. In comes campaign leader Trump "Making America Great Again" through buying / hiring American; President Trump makes America isolated, violent and with great inequalities – an autistic, psychotic, narcissistic, paranoid leader in a psychopathologically exceptional "we-them" -based paranoid state. A perfect foundation for achieving the worst.

2050 is just 33 years ahead of us; The 33 years behind us are Orwell's 1984. Much has happened since 1984. The Berlin Wall collapsed in 1989; the Soviet Empire, the Soviet Union and Communism followed. The US Empire lapsed; former clients refused to fight the US wars, but not the EU wars; NATO is eroding. The Cold War, which threatened humanity with a nuclear weapons race that could destroy the planet, melted away with a whimper. China's incredible growth since the Deng Xiaoping Revolution in 1980 has mainly taken place during this 33-year period. The attack on Muslim countries by an "American-led coalition" and the reaction of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State caliphate: all during the same period. Regionalization worldwide: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ELAC), African Unity / Union, EU, ASEAN; most states are too small, civilizations block a world state. All over the world, non-dominant nations are asserting themselves. And all over the world, inspired by the United States, this period's women are freeing themselves.

A New World in Just 33 Years of Rapidly Accelerating History, with Another New World in the Next 33. Here are some forecasts, which utilize Western identification of entities / variables and extend trends and Taoist identification of holarchy (the opposite of hierarchy). , ed.) / dialectics, forces / counter forces, yin/that; to grab both continuous change and discontinuous, sudden ditto.

Development: to satisfy basic human needs by lifting from the bottom up. Reduced inequalities can be achieved by 2050. The idea of ​​food / water, clothing, housing, health and education has emerged and been well received (perhaps not in the US); One recipe is for the last two to be free, the first four subsidized with monthly amounts so that they can be purchased. Homo sapiens has been gay faber og homo ludens, productive and playful with lifelong support – not a lifelong struggle simply to survive.

It is true that groundwater and river water are scarce resources, but seawater is not. Seawater can be used when it is boiled using a dish mirror and the steam is trapped.

Move out of big cities ruled by elites to small, local people ruled.

Environment: to satisfy basic natural needs, diversity and symbiosis. Combating CO2 emissions, a bilateral context that really applies to a complex reality, is far too simplified. It would make sense to fight against chlorofluorocarbons (CFC gases) that destroy the ozone layer and natural symbiosis; to strengthen the diversity of biotopes and the non-living elements that are important to any ecosystem, in addition to using only renewable resources.

People stop smoking if the individual associates it with dying from lung cancer directly to smoking. A disaster that is directly linked to the neglect of nature's needs can provoke relief from the collective community. It is likely to happen, but it is better to be pro-active than re-active. A key: The darker the Earth, the more it is heated by solar energy; cities are darker than villages. Therefore, move out of big cities ruled by elites to small, local people ruled.

Fred: Defined negatively as the absence of bad parties to each other, and positively as the presence of kind parties – at mega-macro-meso-micro levels, this depends on the ability to resolve underlying conflicts and reconcile underlying trauma – which is likely increases.

Galtung's forecasts for twenty issues spanning the world and the various levels up to 2050:

Islam vs. Islam West: Countercyclical, Muslim community / division increases, Western loneliness / bureaucracy decreases; conversion to Islam and to the West building community / sharing. IS and the Caliphate based on Imams purify Islam for Western impulses and reach Mecca.

NATO / USA vs. SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization): No world war, NATO is shut down, not SCO.

Vesten vs. Russia: No war, the EU / Russia's European House unites.

First World vs. Third World, "North / South": The last one will be the first; Africa and Latin America / Caribbean match Europe and the United States.

Vesten vs. Eurasia / SCO, "West / East": Eurasia penetrates and dominates the West in the same way as China with the United States, not vice versa; dominion, not war.

Israel vs. Palestine / Arab countries: An Israel just for Jews will not survive; On the other hand, it wants a multinational Israel that is just as tolerant of Muslims / Arabs as it is of Jews and Christians as the Book's people are with Jews everywhere.

Japan / USA, Russia, China, Korea – about islands: Violence / war likely if shared ownership of islands and profits is not achieved.

China vs. ASEAN in the South China Sea: War likely unless US aircraft carriers are pulled out; sharing ownership, fisheries and profits.

North Korea vs. United States: War likely if there is no peace agreement, normalization of relations with North Korea, and nuclear-free zone on the Korean peninsula.

USA: A country among others, but focusing on who is to blame, with anti-Semitism; new domestic and world policy; heartfelt writings will come.

EU: Different rates with the euro as usual, but not the only currency.

SCO: Will cover most of the Asian continent, merging with Eurasia.

International: Will split into Anglo-Saxon England, Celtic Wales, Scotland, Ireland and the Islands, in a "Confederation of the British Isles".

Russia: Compensating for "unfair agreements" with Chinese dynamic immigration, Russia is growing as part of Eurasia, with violence.

Kina: The population is aging, will be overtaken by Africa as China drove past the China-Japan "dragons" that had passed Japan, which had passed the United States.

States, except the largest: Submits to regions / local authorities, with a United Regions; The UN without any veto power leaves the United States.

Ability to deal with threatening conflicts within communities: Use of human rights to create equality, and democracy for common decisions.

Ability to handle conflicts between people: So weak that it will be better by connecting good with good, evil with evil.

Ability to handle conflict: So weak that it will get better. First step: to look at conflicts as incompatible goals, as something that needs to be resolved.

Ability to process trauma: So weak that it will get better. First step: share narratives about what has happened, wish the violence undone.

Galtung's introductory lecture at the World Futures Studies Federation Conference in Jondal, Norway, June 7, 2017

Johan Galtung
Johan Galtung
Galtung is a peace researcher with 60 years of experience in conflict resolution. Galtung has been a frequent consultant to governments, companies and to the United Nations and its family of organizations. His relentless dedication to peace since he published Gandhi's Political Ethics has been recognized with thirteen honorary doctorates and professorships and an alternative Nobel Prize. He has generated a unique conceptual toolkit for empirical, critical and constructive inquiry into the subject of peace. The fundamental purpose of the Galtung-Institut goes beyond the transfer of the theoretical, methodological and practical skills developed by Johan Galtung and others in over 50 years of progress in peace research and practice. The overall goal of the GI is indeed to continue contributing to the further development of peace theory and peace praxeology in the interest of a desperately needed reduction of human and environmental suffering.

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