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Middle East – against new conflicts

Our co-worker John E. Andersson provides in this article an overview of the situation in the Middle East and the forces implicated in the conflict. While the relationship between Israel and the Arab states is still strongly tightened, not least after the mass executions in Iraq, the two superpowers are proposing a new policy in the area – but have different motives.




(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)

The Middle East guerrilla forces have their main bases in Jordan. Two-thirds of the population is made up of Palestinian refugees who, after the state of Israel was established, had to flee to the west bank of the Jordanian coast. There they settled in refugee camps. After the six-day war in 1967, they were driven across the Jordan River and are now living in miserable conditions in refugee camps around Jordan's capital Amman. From these camps guerrilla forces are recruited and here they have their support points. The guerrillas are a serious political problem for King Hussein. He is forced to accept their activity for political reasons. The king has his support in the Bedouin population, while the Palestinian refugees have no confidence in his maneuver. In an interview with the English Observer, he has stated that, in a compromise with Israel, he would forgo the west side of the Jordanian beach. He could imagine this area as an area for the Palestinian refugees, but at the same time he was aware that the area would be under Israel's control.

UN resolution in 1948

From a historical perspective, this would be a great admission. During the first war in 1948, the Jews expanded their territory by more than 20 percent more than they were allocated by the United Nations. An Arab Palestinian state envisaged in the UN resolution never came to fruition. The other areas of what the UN allocated to the refugees were occupied by Jordan and Egypt. The King's proposal is not acceptable to the refugees. Therefore, he has been forced to withdraw the offer. The guerrilla attitude towards Hussein is also beginning to make itself known to Nasser. Now they suspect him of having the recovery of the lost areas in 1967 as their sole goal.

El Falah

The guerrilla organizations with El Fatah as the largest do not receive support from either Nasser or Hussein, but their influence in Jordan is steadily growing. It has around 50 bases in the Jordanian mountains and it is estimated that El Fatah consists of about 10 soldiers with an expanded organization in the refugee camps. The Israeli actions with attacks in Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon are justified as reprisals for terrorist activities in Israel or in the occupied territories. But the guerrilla sabotage business is in no proportion to the massive reprisals. Regular forces have been deployed by Israel and the actions have affected countries that have no control over the guerrilla organizations operating from there.

New US policy

Both the United States and the Soviet Union are proposing a new policy in the area, but have different motives. The Americans realize that they must gain greater influence in the Arab countries. The reason is that they depend on a steady supply of oil from the Middle East. Press groups, oil-lobbies, are among the strongest forces behind Nixon. Of the US investments abroad, oil investments in the Middle East are the most profitable. Governor Scranton's travels in the area and the statements he made suggest a new policy. He stated that both Hussein and Nasser proposed a realistic and sensible policy. This does not mean that the United States will give up Israel as an instrument in the area. The country can still serve to curb progressive forces. But lately, the country has pursued a policy that has radicalized the masses in the Arab countries and weakened US influence in the same areas. Nixon is not, like its predecessor, dependent on Jewish support in the United States. They did not help him to become president. In the UN, Americans have stood with the Soviet in criticizing Israel.

The Soviet Union and the Security Council resolution in 1967

The Soviet Union's position remains that a political solution must be reached, and that it must be based on the Security Council resolution of November 22, 1967. This attitude implies increased condemnation of Israel, the leaders of the country and those who support them, but with The emphasis on a political solution to the crisis was repeated by Tabeev, a member of the presidency of the upper Soviet Union at the Cairo Solidarity Conference recently. One must remember that there was a militant assembly Tabeev was facing. This underlines the Soviet will for a political solution. Russians are also afraid of China's growing influence in the region. They point out that one of the Maoist methods is "to support all movements with separatist and extremist tendencies while supplying them with weapons". In the Kremlin's opinion, a political solution will at the same time weaken Beijing's influence. This may not be the least important reason for the Soviet insistence on the requirement that the Security Council Resolution of November 22, 1967, be put to death.

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