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New report: Conversion is possible but will cost

Stripping down the oil industry can mean huge job losses. A new report predicts what the fossil fuel industry will cost.

"We have calculated what it will cost to accelerate the phasing out of the petroleum business, both in terms of employment and what it means in lost income," says Karin Ibenholt, head of Social Economics analysis to Ny Tid. "In short, we find that the largest fall in employment will come after 2025 or 2030, depending on how quickly we phase out oil, but that it will be possible to come up with alternative employment. There are also costs in the form of lost income, but it is uncertain how large these will be. And then you have to assess this loss against what you gain in the form of reduced greenhouse gas emissions. "

As a starting point, the socio-economic analysis has been based on the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate's forecasts for oil recovery over the next decades. “We have worked on a scenario for development in the petroleum sector which some would say is well optimistic. How income and employment in the oil industry develops depends on what happens to climate policy in the rest of the world. In addition, there is a development in the world market where part of the transition to more climate jobs comes to a greater extent as a result of private investment, ”says Ibenholt. According to the analysis, investment of between NOK 50 and 100 billion per year would have to be maintained to maintain the same employment as expanded exploration activity in the Barents Sea and elsewhere, given that the NPD's forecasts are voting and the market to a small extent self-organizing.

"Switching from oil and gas right away is clinically impossible."

Frode Alfheim, professional political leader in Industrial Energy

Frode Alfheim, union leader in Industri Energi, for his part, is very pleased with the allocations of new licenses in the Barents Sea. "The 23rd licensing round, which was started by the previous government and completed by the current government, shows that there is broad agreement that it should be carried out as planned," he told Ny Tid. "This means that we will now start a new exploration business. With us, it is the rig industry that is most affected by unemployment as a result of exploration having stopped. The new licenses provide much-needed activity in this field, and will also be important for the oil service area. They will also provide new activity in our northernmost part of the country, Finnmark. "

Alfheim agrees that there must be a restructuring, but believes it must be longer term. "To switch from oil and gas right away is clinically impossible. And needless to say, for the world to demand oil and gas for many decades to come. Norway, which has the world's best technology and the lowest emissions in both exploration and production, must continue this contribution. off-
Shore technology is the second largest export item we have, after just oil and gas, and that is because we have set strict environmental and climate requirements from day one for operations on the Norwegian continental shelf. If you close down on this shelf, you also close down a laboratory for the development of climate technology globally. That would be bankrupt in the climate fight. "

Tori Aarseth
Aarseth is a political scientist and a regular journalist at Ny Tid.

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