(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
Since the beginning of the 2010s, Turkeys defense industry has undergone a remarkable transformation, culminating in an increasingly prominent role on the global stage. This is particularly so after the regime change in 2017, which marked the transition from a parliamentary democracy to a super-presidential system. This transformation has been an important pillar of the regime of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has governed Turkey since 2002. Although the increase in export volumes and the emergence of Turkish Forsvarcompanies is large, the underlying dynamics behind this development and its geopolitical ramifications require a more nuanced explanation.
Militaristic techno-nationalism
The roots of Turkey's modern defense industry can be traced back to the 1970s, but the stronger development began in 2004. Then the highest authorities in the Turkish defense sector made a decision to reject the prevailing model of foreign joint ventures in favor of a strategy of in-house production. This turn marked the beginning of a new era and placed Turkey on a path towards self-sufficient defense production.
The defense industry was exploited to promote technonationalism, which secured support from the country's nationalist voter base. Technonationalism has strengthened Turkey's proactive foreign policy, promoted national pride and reinforced the image of a powerful state. For Erdoğan, techno-nationalism is not a nationalism rooted in past discontent or threats, but a nationalism that emphasizes progress and independence. For example, it serves as a strategic initiative to unite Turkey's conservative right, counter political polarization and promote development, modernization and security. This narrative, which emphasizes National pride and military strength, has particularly resonated with Turkey's youth.
Economic and geopolitical driving forces
The other important driving force behind the rise of Turkey's defense industry is the need for a new model for capital accumulation. In the 2000s, Turkey's strategy for growth based on domestic demand and a model for capital accumulation based on construction faced challenges, especially in the second half of the 2010s, with falling growth rates, a growing need for foreign direct investment. The weakening of the Turkish lira, combined with a growing export capacity, gave rise to yet another export-oriented growth strategy (Turkey has had such in the past). The defense industry became a central part of this model, with government support and incentives driving pro-government companies to enter the sector. This shift led to a dramatic expansion of environmental protection projects.
President Erdoğan recently announced that the Turkish Navy will develop a national aircraft carrier. This is part of a broader expansionist and interventionist foreign policy strategy, with emphasis on naval power, oil drilling in the eastern Mediterranean and establishment of military bases along the coasts of Africa.
The third major driving force behind the growth of the defense industry lies in foreign policy considerations. In the wake of the Syrian Civil War (2011) and the rise of the YPG in northern Syria, Turkish foreign policy underwent a profound shift. The paradigm of "zero problems with the neighbours", which characterized Turkish foreign policy in the 2000s, was abandoned in favor of a more interventionist approach under the doctrine of "security at any cost". This has guided Turkey's foreign relations since 2015. This shift has manifested itself in cross-border operations in Syria, escalating tensions with the EU over drilling rights in the eastern Mediterranean and Turkey's direct involvement in the conflicts in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.
The increasing military involvement since 2015, combined with cross-border operations, has led arms embargois from the US and the EU and a deterioration of diplomatic relations. In response, the Erdoğan administration has increased efforts to develop its own defense industry, which is in line with Turkey's more aggressive foreign policy stance. The active use of BAYKARs combat drones against the PKK and YPG led to an externalization of armed conflicts and dramatically limited the PKK's ability to act within Turkey's borders. Turkish authorities demonstrated the effectiveness of the defense industry's products here by using them against YPG in Syria, contributing to national support by harmonizing the military-industrial complex with the goal of fighting 'terrorism'.
The government's adherence to #333333militarist-nationalist rhetoric, combined with a state-centric model of capital accumulation similar to the strategies seen in Russia, has been key to the growth of the defense industry. This shift also reflects Turkey's desire for greater independence in foreign relations, and to reduce dependence on foreign military technology and influence. The resulting synergy between a nationalist, militaristic discourse and the defense industry has cemented the sector's role as a central part of Turkey's authoritarian regime.
The growth
In 2002, the total volume of defense industry projects was a modest $5,5 billion. By 2023, this figure had risen to over 96 billion dollars. In addition, the number of defense projects, which stood at 62 in 2002, has now exceeded 1000 in 2024, according to Turkey's Defense Industry Presidency (SSB). The volume of defense exports also illustrates this increase: in 2023, Turkey's defense exports reached $5,5 billion, with a target of $7 billion by the end of the year. Turkish-made TB2 drones played a central role in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, marking a turning point in the country's defense exports. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Turkey became the world's 11th largest defense exporter in 2023.
The most impressive growth has been in revenue, with the defense and aerospace sector increasing from $1 billion in 2002 to now projected to exceed $15 billion in 2024. In addition, five Turkish companies are listed on Defense News' 'Top 100' list in today, reflecting the growing global demand for Turkish defense products.
New projects and future ambitions
Going forward, Turkey's defense industry is concentrating on three major projects: the domestic fifth generation fightera KAAN, the Steel Dome air defense system and an aircraft carrier. After being excluded from the F-35 program due to the purchase of the Russian S-400 system, Turkey has accelerated efforts to develop its own fifth-generation fighter jet. The KAAN, of which test flights began earlier this year, is expected to enter service by 2028. However, the dependence on foreign components remains a significant challenge for the Turkish defense industry.
Another ambitious project has been the air defense system Steel Dome, which will be Turkey's answer to Israel's Iron Dome. The government has sought to position it as a response to growing regional security threats, including airstrikes against Syria and Iran. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan even declared that “hopefully we will complete our Iron Dome project with all its components. If they (Israel) have the Iron Dome, we will also have the Steel Dome”. The financial burden the project has entailed has, however, resulted in tax increases so that the allocations to the defense can be increased.
In addition, President Erdoğan recently announced that the Turkish Navy will develop a national aircraft carrier. This is part of a wider expansionist and interventionist foreign policy strategy, with an emphasis on naval power, oil drilling in the eastern Mediterranean and the establishment of military bases along the coasts of Africa, particularly in Somalia. These initiatives are central to Turkey's ambition to strengthen its naval capabilities and expand its power projection globally. In this context, the development of a separate aircraft carrier is considered a decisive step.
Turkey's defense industry is likely to continue to grow, driven by a combination of internal political dynamics, economic challenges and an aggressive foreign policy. The ongoing economic crisis, combined with growing nationalism and militarism, will probably contribute to further expansion in the defense sector. However, the deepening economic crisis presents significant challenges, particularly when it comes to the financing of projects such as Steel Dome.
Despite these challenges, the government's emphasis on military expansion remains significant, particularly in light of the ongoing conflicts with the PKK and YPG in northern Iraq and Syria. The PKK's terrorist attack on Turkey's national airline, TUSAŞ, and the ongoing military operations in Syria strengthens the government's attempts to complete new projects such as KAAN – and channels extra resources to the industry.
The popularity of the defense industry remains high, giving the Erdoğan administration the political support it needs to continue investing in defense projects. Ultimately, the development of Turkey , literary industrial complex deeply intertwined with the country's wider authoritarian agenda. The defense sector plays a central role in strengthening Turkey's status as a growing regional power.
Esin is a master's student at Can Cemgil in Istanbul.
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