(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
It's the same fight. The one that consists in protecting humanity from the deadly attacks perpetrated by ISIS, and the one that consists in protecting the Earth from our own inconsistency – and which tomorrow may be the source of conflict and war. Both are equally acute: the fanaticism that kills today, and the indifference that devours the globe, declared French President Francois Hollande in the opening speech on COP21. The framework for the conference was a state of emergency with warlike security measures. It made a clear impression on the mood. This was not a "regular" UN conference. Here, 150 heads of state and government declared war, against visible as well as invisible enemies. For UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon, the fight against climate change and the fight against terror go "hand in hand" – for neglecting climate change, their effects can cause frustration for entire populations and be the basis for radicalization. In many parts of the world, millions of farmers are driven towards the cities. In Syria, four and a half years of drought have displaced one and a half million people. This is not the cause of the war, but it increases the tension between different groups of people.
Drought and migration. Several international reports point out the same. In March, the American Academy of Sciences has just concluded that climate change has helped exacerbate the Syrian conflict with the drought that has prevailed since 2006. People moved from what had been fertile lands until then to suburbs where nothing was or was done to accept them. The drought had led to increased food prices and poorer health, which in turn were contributing causes of the civil war. Similar conditions have also destabilized other countries, including Africa, and led to massive migrations. Weak governments do not cope with the situation, which is becoming increasingly tense. Lack of leadership favors extreme ideologies and forms a fertile breeding ground for terrorism. This is how a terrorist movement like Boko Haram has been able to grow and spread to Chad, Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon.
A few years ago, many, not least George Bush and Barack Obama, claimed that terrorism ended in poverty. Thorough studies, including in the UK, refute this. Terrorists usually belong to the middle class, and many have a useful education. Moreover, they are not the biggest threat to our modern societies, even though they managed to hit hundreds of people in one day in Paris on 13 November. For the French philosopher and anthropologist Bruno Latour, climate change is a much greater and more acute danger, because it "threatens our values at their most fundamental." It is a "war of civilization", affecting everyone. But the states that will fight it are old and as ill-equipped as they are for the fight against terrorism. According to Latour, civil society itself must find solutions and force governments to implement them. But due to terrorism, civil society was kept far away from the negotiating table, and green activists who had probably prepared as well as the heads of state were placed under house arrest.
Millions. Both heads of state and most people experience terrorism as much more concrete, acute and deadly, while climate change is considered a future disaster – which can be avoided. Maybe we are a little more conscious in Norway, but not so much more. So far, climate change for most consists of numbers and slightly distant names, such as the atoll nation Tuvalu. It has already lost several small islands and risks total flooding. It is a reported disaster, just like for the 26 million people displaced this year.
They could be 150 million by 2050. Before the major migrations to Europe and across our own borders this year, we did not see them. Not all migrants flee due to climate change, but many of them do so as a consequence (eg Syria). And also over them, terror has cast its gray shadow. Two of the terrorists in Paris had entered Europe via Greece, along with refugees. It was enough for Europe's far-right parties to equate, and several countries closed their borders.
This is the first time that the fight against global warming has been reduced to an international security issue, indeed a means of counter-terrorism.
Clammy hand. Of course, Marine Le Pen's National Front party has taken full advantage of this in the election campaign, which is a third ingredient for the French leadership in COP21. It was hardly a coincidence that the two rounds of elections in the regional elections were added in the middle of the negotiations. This is another imminent threat to President Hollande. In the last local election, his Socialist Party made it miserable, and the National Front brilliant. Even if it is a regional election and not a national election, it is important enough. So to avoid total disaster, the governing parties have knowingly and intentionally postponed the election days in the middle of COP21 and focused on success there.
This fairly transparent political side-plan does not convince everyone, neither the official delegates, who hardly even know about it, nor civil society. On the other hand, it is the first time an international conference under the auspices of the UN has been so marked by events in the host country. This is the first time that the fight against global warming has been reduced to an international security issue, indeed a means of counter-terrorism. And – due to the security measures – also completely left to the technicians and heads of state. The result may in the long run be that civil society does not accept decisions they were not given a chance to take part in, just as in the closing phase in Copenhagen in 2009. But it is not just the civilians who feel left out. A conference like COP21 shows that there is still a gap between north and south, and between small and large nations. It is not even certain that the agreement will be binding on the next president of the United States. It is a not insignificant democratic problem, indeed, a kind of threat in itself.
COP21 was in every way a fateful encounter, over which terror laid a clammy hand. In a way, it may have worked positively. Precisely for this reason, an agreement would be reached. Finally.
Knoop Rachline is a journalist, correspondent and author. vkrachline@gmail.com.
