The red danger

3. May cyclone hit Nargis Burma at full strength. 2,4 millions of people are affected and over 130.000 Burmese died in one of the worst natural disasters of our time. While the world community was concerned about the relief of victims and the danger of outbreaks of epidemics, the Burmese generals were most concerned with carrying out the referendum on a new constitution. In the absence of targeted relief efforts on the part of the authorities, there is another group that has led the clean-up work: Burma's monks.
"When the people fear the authorities, we have a tyranny. When the authorities fear the people, we have freedom, ”Thomas Jefferson said. This is not the case in Burma.

- The generals are safer for us than we are for them, says Kyaw, a Buddhist monk at one of the largest monasteries in Mandalay, Burma's second largest city.
Kyaw and Kyi live at a monastery just outside Mandalay. Kyaw has been a monk here since 1979. Today he is 46 years, and is a teacher at the monastery. Kyi is 34, and is learning from her older friend. They divide the monastery by approx. 1500 other monks, most of whom attended the demonstrations in September last year. Kyi was only 13 years during the previous big uprising in 1988, but still remembers how he then ran around shooting gunshots at police.

During the uprising in September last year, he helped organize the demonstrations. He led the demonstration train through the streets. Spectators flocked around the monks, offering their donations, their support and their tears. They risked imprisonment for supporting and giving alms to the saffron-led crowd. Several thousands were arrested. But Kyaw does not give a grudge to the police and the soldiers.
– They must follow orders. They are scared too. Here in Burma, we are all in trouble, he says to Ny Tid.

On September 25, the demonstrations for the monks at Kyaw and Kyi monastery ended. During the night, the monastery was surrounded by soldiers, and the monks were prevented from entering the streets.
– The authorities are afraid of us. It's really a shame on them. They are surrounded by enemies all the time and can not go out on the street. The generals are terrified of losing power and of being held accountable for their actions, Kyaw said.
His words are reminiscent of a speech Aung San Suu Kyi gave a few years ago, in which she pointed out that "it is not power that corrupts, it is fear – the fear of losing it".

- The generals sleep with armed guards to take care of themselves. They are terrified of their own people. See what they did two years ago, when they moved to a place with almost no people. It's a pity for them, he repeats.

Superstition and number magic

In the Burmese capital of Naypyitaw, the streetlights stand on rails and look down on 8-field boulevards. Street sweepers wander around in ragged clothes and straw hats, some policemen stand at a giant roundabout with a flower fountain in the middle and watch out for traffic. There is only one thing missing: the cars. An occasional pickup with the truck full of goods and people coughing past, some mopeds drooling. But here are more street sweepers than vehicles. The new apartment blocks are reminiscent of playmo houses where they stand as building kits, in succession, many still empty. Here the monks gleam with their absence.

In the autumn of 2005, the Burmese generals moved the entire administration here to Naypyitaw, to the valley areas far away from the former capital of Rangoon. Many then wondered why the junta was moving. Theories were several. Many pointed to the generals' superstition and confidence in their astrologers, who were believed to have proposed moving the capital.

The generals' faith in astrologers is well known in the country. Former Chief Ne Ne's favorite number was 9, when his personal astrologers thought it was a favorable figure for him. Therefore, in order to satisfy Ne Wins' conviction about the 9's underpinnings, the country had a monetary system of 45 notes and 90 banknotes right up to 1987. The change to a hundreds-based system led to overnight people losing their savings and helping to lead to the Great Rebellion on August 8, 1988, or August 8.8.88, 1988, which the incident is also known as. Superstition and belief in number magic is still popular in Burma, and it is no coincidence that the XNUMX uprising fell on this very date.
The junta themselves say they moved to better manage the country. Among other things, there seems to be a consensus that the junta moved to get away from its own population. Should the dissatisfaction with the junta flare up in rebellion, as it did in September, the generals can sit safely in their small command center far from people and deploy the military against the protesters.

Like father saw daughter

According to Amnesty International, several thousand Burmese were arrested during and after the September demonstrations, including monks and students. Many monks have not yet returned to their monasteries, some have been banished to their homes, others are still in prison or have been killed.

Tin was among the protesters who got to feel the junta's iron hand in September. On September 27, he was arrested right at the Sule Pagoda in downtown Rangoon.
– I was taken by the civilian police and driven to The Technological Department University. There I was housed with about 300 other prisoners, mostly monks and students. We were held captive for 2 weeks. The food was lousy, and the sanitary conditions if possible even worse.
He says his class had 60 students before the demonstrations. Now they are 51 again.

- I do not know what happened to the 9 who are missing. Maybe they're sent back to their parents, maybe they's in jail, maybe they's dead. I do not know.

Tin has long been active politically, but as he himself says:
– Before the demonstrations, I was upset about the situation in our country. Now I'm cursed.
He belongs to the new generation of oppositionists, who did not attend the riots in 1988, but who now demand democracy. The 1988 uprising was hard-fought, but led to the 1990 election that Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) won with 82 percent of the vote. Since then, she has been under house arrest for more than 12 years, and has only been released for short periods.

Aung San Suu Kyi is today one of the world's foremost symbol of the liberation struggle of the oppressed. She spent much of her life abroad, first in India with her mother, and later with her English husband in England. In 1988, she returned to Burma to care for her sick mother. As the daughter of the liberation hero of 1948, Aung San, she suddenly stands, unwillingly, in the midst of the Burmese revolt. She quickly becomes symbolically important to the opposition, and not long afterwards becomes the natural leader of the rebellion. Since then she has fought for, and become a symbol of, the democracy movement in the country. In 1991, she was awarded what many consider to be the ultimate recognition, the Nobel Peace Prize.

Roadmap to the Enevelde

The Burmese authorities, nicknamed the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), have their own plan for the path to a democratic Burma: "The seven-step roadmap to democracy". The roadmap has been renamed by critics for the somewhat less optimistic "The seven-step roadmap to autocracy" and "The roadmap to nowhere".

The road map, which was launched in 2003, has been criticized for being unclear, and does not mention anything about either the NLD or any of the elected officials from the 1990 elections. Critical voices claim that the road map is not intended to lay the foundations for democratic reform but that it is rather a tool for constitutionalizing the current military regime.

On Saturday, May 24, point 4 of the junta's roadmap was completed: In the midst of the chaos following the riots of the cyclone, a referendum was held on a new constitution. The result was already given. According to the junta, 92,4 percent of the people voted for the new constitution in the first election on May 10. Most people probably felt that they had no choice. Prior to the referendum, special laws were tabled, which stipulated, among other things, that "counteracting" the vote, by, for example, "distributing flyers, pasting posters or holding speeches", could be punishable by up to 3 years in prison. It was also legislated that monks and nuns could not vote.

According to the road map, the Constitution will form the basis for the free election of a legislative assembly, which the authorities have announced will take place in 2010. Nyan Win, spokesman for the NLD, points out that it is strange that the authorities have already announced the election in 2010, when one even "does not know whether the people will vote for or against the new constitution. " The Legislative Assembly will then meet according to SPDC's roadmap, and this will be followed by the last point, point 7: Building a modern and democratic nation.

Should there be free elections in 2010, Aung San Suu Kyi cannot stand as a candidate for the NLD. Under Burmese law, people who are married to a foreigner or have children who are foreign nationals cannot apply for election. The junta has rejected plans to change this law.

Suu Kyi and the NLD have not yet announced how they will stand for the upcoming referendum in May. Some commentators point out that it may be wise to recognize the new constitution, to give SPDC a "way out", and to avoid a politically locked situation. Others point out that people in Burma will protest if the NLD recognizes a constitution ordered by the SPDC generals.
There is no doubt that the SPDC and their leader, Senior General Than Shwe, had not scored very high on a popularity barometer in Burma, and should the Burmese feel cheated during the referendum in May, one might wonder if that could lead to new uprisings.
The drafting of the new constitution is still unpublished, but according to critics, the little leaked through the state media in the country suggests: The president of the country must have at least 10 years of military service behind him. The Minister of Defense shall be appointed by the commander-in-chief of the military, and not by the parliament or the prime minister. In an emergency, the military could seize power, and this assumption of power should be considered legitimate.

- Bring weapons

Back in the monastery outside Mandalay, Kyaw and Kyi sit and talk about the road map.
– The so-called roadmap to democracy directed solely by the junta. People have nothing they should have said. It cannot possibly lead to reconciliation and a functioning democracy, Kyaw believes.
The two monks agree that the fight for a democratic Burma will continue. But they disagree on the way forward.
– I'm tired of you in the West coming up with nice words that they support us, Kyi says and looks up at his teacher.
– The West says a lot of good, but does nothing. We are alone. The world community and the UN do nothing. We have tried to fight by peaceful means, it failed. The only language the generals understand is that of the rifles. If you want to help, bring weapons and warships.
The words sound weird as they leave the young monk's lips, that's not what one expects to hear from a Buddhist monk. Desperate situations lead to desperate people, and monks are also people.

Kyi disagrees with his student's point of view, although he also points out that they do not notice the "support" from the West. "All they offer us, is lip service," he says, but also adds that he has no faith in armed confrontation with the military in the country.
– It will go against all Buddhist teachings. This movement will always be based on non-violence, he points out.

Negotiations with the junta

Aung San Suu Kyi has met representatives of the junta five times since the September uprising, no later than January 30. "Hope for the best, be prepared for the worst" was her message to the Burmese people after the conversation with the junta's envoy Aung Kyi.
There is a widespread attitude that the junta is having conversations with the opposition to give the impression that they have a desire for change, while buying time to strengthen the current regime. The talks with UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari have also proved to be somewhat fruitless. The SPDC has not agreed to any of the proposals the world community has made, and has also accused Gambari of being biased. Under these circumstances, it is difficult to have a constructive dialogue.
– The UN has failed, says Htet Aung Kyaw, journalist in the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), the radio and TV station that sends news into the country every day from their offices in Oslo.
– Ibrahim Gambari is the UN's third special envoy to Burma. The previous envoys have not been able to do much, and there are many indications that Mr. Gambari will not be able to do anything either, he says to Ny Tid.
– The UN has possibly played its role. The opposition in the country is in many ways alone in the negotiations with the military.

Following Gambari's visit to Burma in March, Ludu Sein Win, a Burmese journalist who himself has spent 13 years in prison, took a stronger stand, saying in a speech distributed among Burmese inside and outside Burma that "never has a country received its freedom through UN assistance. Do not waste your time dreaming of dialogue (with the junta) and hoping for help from the UN Security Council. "We already have the strength needed to overthrow the military government – the Burmese people's own, united strength."
Several have suggested that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon should personally go to Burma, with a binding resolution anchored in the Security Council in the back. Htet Aung Kyaw of DVB has little faith in this.
– China will veto, he states.

A new Tibet

The discourse around Burma shows that among many in the West there is a consensus that China is the key to the problems in its neighboring country. It is pointed out that no matter what the West does, the junta will be able to maintain its own existence and, with continued trade and support from Beijing, continue its oppression of its own population. China has several times previously vetoed the UN Security Council when resolutions on Burma have been up for vote. On January 22, China rejected a US proposal to step up international pressure against the Burma military junta. Beijing proclaims that they will not interfere with other countries' "internal affairs" and Chinese leaders were very cautious in their statements during the riots in Burma, but urged the parties to "show restraint and restore stability as soon as possible".

Natural resources, the country's geographical position, and what is believed to be Asia's largest oil reserves, located off the coast of Burma, make Burma an important strategic partner for an ever-stronger Beijing. Some Burmese believe their country is so important to China that they fear that Burma will become the new Tibet. Khin Maung Win, editorial head of the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) shares their concern.
– China has already occupied us economically, he points out.

Much of Burma's economy is in Chinese hands, and the proportion of Chinese-owned businesses in Burma's cities is increasing. It is estimated that around 2,5 million people of Chinese descent live within national borders. Most everyone more prosperous than the regular Burmese.

In the monastery outside Mandalay, China's role is also discussed.
– We need stronger pressure on China. If China agrees to put pressure on the generals, we will have a change here. But regardless of what China and you in the West do, we will continue to fight for a democratic Burma, until our country is reconciled with itself, says Kyi.

The cloak-wearing monk takes a little break before he asks,
– You know what date the opening of the Olympics in Beijing is? It is exactly 20 years since the great uprising on 8.8.88.
I think that's a good sign.