(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
The ANC government is set to take 70 percent of the vote in the South African elections on April 14. The opinion polls are unambiguous and confirmed by political commentators. The small parties go from small to even smaller. The opposition fears that South Africa is on its way to becoming a one-party state. ANC hegemony is a threat to democracy, it says.
- The big question is not whether the ANC will get an overwhelming majority, says Patrick Laurence, political analyst at the Helen Suzmann Foundation and thus linked to the largest opposition party Democratic Alliance – but whether they achieve a two-thirds majority as early as April 14.
Of the other parties, only the Democratic Alliance and Inkatha Freedom Party are able to get a support of around ten percent. These two parties have entered into an election alliance to ensure the highest possible support. The small parties, with the New National Party at the forefront, tend to be completely marginalized. Some are still optimistic: The popular leader of one-year-old Independent Democrats, Paticia de Lille, claims she will take 12 percent of the vote.
- We will give the established parties a real surprise, she says.
Three periods for Mbeki?
Patrick Laurence does not believe anything in her. – People are afraid that the ANC will be too strong and want the strongest possible opposition. It favors the largest opposition parties, he says.
Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon knows how to play on the fear of the one-party state. His election campaign has been characterized by a crackdown and personal attacks on President Thabo Mbeki and he has repeatedly accused the ANC of wanting such a large majority that the party can change the constitution in its favor without hindrance. The scare is that Mbeki will run for president for a third term. If so, this will prove the ANC's undemocratic tendencies, is the reasoning.
We have not seen an election campaign where Lord Acton is quoted as many times as in South Africa this spring: "All power corrupts, and absolute power absolutely corrupts!"
- The danger is there for the ANC to take its mandate for granted and become so arrogant that they will not accept an election result where people vote them out of the government corridors and into the opposition, Laurence says.
The ANC has rejected all such allegations in cash and President Mbeki himself has made it clear that it is not appropriate for him to stand as president for a third term.
Centralization of power
- I see a clear tendency for centralization of power in the hands of the president, Laurence says. – It is, for example, the president who appoints the prime ministers in the provincial governments, and not the provincial assemblies themselves. It is clearly unfortunate and undemocratic, he believes.
- But at the moment we have to face the fact that the ANC is not a threat to, but a manifestation of democracy, Patric Laurence continues. – After all, the elections are open and democratic and it is the will of the people that votes for them!
Laurence agrees that it is the opposition's responsibility to establish a viable alternative to the government, but disagrees that they are not able to make their policy visible: – DA's predecessor got around two percent in the election in 1994, he says, in the election in 1999 took the party five percent. This year, the party will grow further and is expected to take around ten percent. This means that the DA has been able to make its policy visible as an alternative to the ANC. We also see this in the fact that the party is starting to take votes in the black population, Laurence claims.
Center-oriented politics
The problem the opposition faces, he believes, is that South African politics no longer moves along a right-left axis, but that all parties advocate center-right political line choices. – The ANC is today more center-oriented than socialist, Laurence believes and does not think this year's budget will change that, despite the fact that it is more left-wing than in a long time. The government is in favor of using more public funds to create jobs in a country with 40 percent unemployment.
- Few, for example, are against the Black Economic Empowerment policy to even out the differences between rich and poor. The debate is more about how long it should last and how extensive it should be, Laurence continues.
Another debate is whether the government's alliance partner COSATU (South African LO) is too strong and scares away foreign investors, and thus destroys the opportunity to create new jobs. – Everyone agrees that we should have legislation that regulates the relationship between the parties in working life, says Laurence, – the debate is about what kind of regulation best attracts foreign investment.
Shouting on death penalty
The lack of clear political divides has given rise to a person-focused election campaign in which many try to mark themselves with strong remedies against South Africa's problems: DA and NNP are calling for a re-introduction of the death penalty, and the DA promises to hire 100.000 new police officers. This is called the effective means of combating crime, an area they claim the government has failed altogether.
DA's Tony Leon also claims that privatization and streamlining of all public services will meet the needs of the population to a far greater extent than the government's ineffective "policy.
For the other parties, they get media coverage when someone throws dirt on them or they themselves end up in a scuffle with other politicians. The leader of the Independent Democrats, Patricia de Lille, for example, ended up in a fight with ANC politicians in the Northern Cape province, but denies having beaten one of them as the press claims: – He was too ugly, she says in her self-defense. It can stand as an example of the level in much of this year's election campaign in South Africa.
What the parties have so far managed to do is avoid violence. Except for a few episodes in KwaZulu Natal, things have all gone peacefully, but there are still almost 14 days left.
Losing support
The question we are left with is why only the ANC of the African parties is strengthening, while the other African parties, such as the ANC's former rival Pan Africanist Congress, are about to disappear completely. – I think it is because these African parties are characterized by internal strife. The ANC never lets internal strife destroy the party, despite all the contradictions it contains.
Laurence also believes that the ANC has stronger support in the population because the party stands out as less nationalist than, for example, the PAC. – The ANC convinces when they claim that they are a party for all Africans regardless of skin color, says Laurence, – the others are unable to do so to the same degree.
