(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
The living conditions in Zimbabwe are preparing everything for a revolt that even the military may be able to support. A new threshold for withdrawals in banks and endless queues up during the fighting in the country that reflected the bitter atmosphere in Harare, which is a sign that time may be running out for President Robert Mugabe.
Resolving all the crises in Zimbabwe is an impossible task for the government. Attendance at schools dropped by 20 percent after four of the country's largest health agencies have now closed their doors amid a cholera outbreak and while AIDS and malaria are increasingly demanding. The stock exchange has stopped trading. The mines are closing while half of the population will need outside food supplies in January.
Nevertheless, President Mugabe and his party Zanu-PF do not give in to the talks about the distribution of power with the opposition. Everything indicates that the regime wants all power or nothing. Economist Enoch Moyo attributes some of the frustration among the people to the complete "dollarization" of the economy, which has put public sector and semi-state companies out of business as they continue to be paid in worthless local currency. But he fears that a military takeover will cause even more chaos than what was seen in Liberia or Sierra Leone.
It is reasonable to assume that, should a major uprising occur, it will take place in peace and quiet and with minimal resistance. Perhaps it will be a way out of a political situation that is in jeopardy. The cholera epidemic is getting worse. The inability to cope with the collapse of the water and sewer system means that the disease, which has killed more than 500 people, is unlikely to disappear by itself. Zanu-PF has a timed bomb in his hands.
Despite the dire consequences, the epidemic has given opposition, Tomorrow Tsvangirai and Movement for Democracy (MDC), a welcome break. “MDC has managed to win the most in this chaos. The party will not rush to end the situation, "says Gibson Zembe, rendering a widespread view.
The likelihood of cholera spreading to neighboring countries prompted several appeals to find a solution to Zimbabwe's eight-year political and economic crisis. South Africa's President Kgalema Molanthe warned against "implosion and collapse" unless a legitimate government could be formed and take responsibility. Kofi Annan blamed the Regional Development Commission for Southern Africa (SADC) for not taking any active action in the Zimbabwe crisis. Such statements are music in MDC's ears, which sees every crisis in Zimbabwe as a weakening of Zanu-PF's power.
Since Tsvangirai won the March 29 election, Zimbabwe has not had a functioning government. Violence against MDC supporters made Tsvangirai choose to resign from a new round of elections. He later agreed with Mugabe and the leader of a breakout group from the MDC to form a unifying government. The talks would end with a settlement of amendments to the Constitution that would create a prime ministerial position, a post meant for Tsvangirai. But the settlement, which was supposed to pave the way for new elections under a new constitution 18 months later, eroded into a quarrel over positions.
The MDC is now hoping that a new broker will fix the trapped situation, as they believe Zanu-PF is not sincere. The party points out that their members are constantly being arrested and that Governor Gideon Gono has been re-elected for another five-year term. The preliminary agreement on power sharing does not allow such appointments until there is agreement on the government. Gono is the most powerful man in the country after the president. He has been blamed for the collapse of the currency system, which has the world's highest inflation rate, currently estimated at 231 million percent.
It could help Botswana, which is heavily critical of Mugabe, take over the chairmanship of the SADC from South Africa in August. Its president, Ian Khama, is one of the region's strongest Mugabe critics. Tensions between the two countries increased as Khama refused to recognize Mugabe's "victory" in the one-man parade that was the new election in June. Mugabe called it "an extremely strong provocation" when Khama called for a new vote with international observers in Zimbabwe.
It is not good to say what the next stage of the situation in Zimbabwe will be. But the symptoms are clear. Among them is a humanitarian disaster. Ironically, the fact that this is getting worse may be what it takes to get the leaders of the region to make the extra effort needed to push democracy.
Translated from English by Ingrid Sande Larsen
Wilson Hohwa is a trained journalist. He was born, raised and educated in Zimbabwe – now a political correspondent for the South African newspaper Business Day.
