(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
Exposed to doubt and uncertainty. This is stated by Charles King, professor of international affairs at Georgetown University in Washington DC, on a visit to Oslo at the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute.
"For the 20 years, the standard narrative of the Caucasus has been that the region is turbulent, unstable, characterized by Muslim uprisings and represents a fundamental security problem for Russia. But that's a different situation now than it was, ”King claims.
Kadyrov continues. Next to President Vladimir Putin, Ramzan Kadyrov is now probably the most powerful and influential person in the Russian Federation, claims King, who does not believe there is any organized crackdown on his authoritarian and brutal regime. And if Kadyrov had felt weak, he would have done more to improve relations with Putin and Russia, King believes. "I'm optimistic about Kadyrov's ability to stay in power," he says, continuing: "It may not be the correct choice of words when it comes to a deeply authoritarian regime, but you know what I mean."
The young, self-proclaimed President Ramzan Kadyrov has shown this spring the opposite of weakness.
"He is more important to Putin than he was just two to three years ago to ensure peace in the North Caucasus," King says. "He runs the sub-republic like a local 'tsar', taking over the presidency after his father, who was killed. He has been Putin's guarantor that riots, riots and terror in Chechnya and against Russia would end after the two Chechnya wars in the 1990s, ”says the professor.
He says that Kadyrov has "delivered the goods" – under strong and persistent criticism from both Russian and foreign human rights organizations – through a combination of obliterating his most ardent opponents in the North Caucasus,
tactics, threats and propaganda that have silenced opponents. Not least, he has also spent tens of billions of dollars on rebuilding the disintegrated capital of Chechnya, Grozny. Today, the city appears as a modern capital with a city center characterized by skyscrapers.
Discontent. Kadyrov – after what is believed to be Chechen terrorists killed by Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov in Moscow in March – has ordered "shooting to kill" if Russian police or security forces cross the border into Chechnya. "If someone strikes into our terrorist territory without our knowledge, it does not matter if they come from Moscow or elsewhere Russia," Kadyrov said after South Russian police hunted a suspected criminal inside Chechnya, who is one of 83 federal entities, and 21 republics and sub-republics in Russia.
Observers and experts now appear to find clear evidence that Russia is losing its iron grip on the sub-republic of the "powder barrel of the Caucasus." Rebellion and riots are now the major problem in the other North Caucasian republics (see map), and in recent years have been most extensive and worst in the eastern republic of Dagestan.
CUP scientist at the NUPI, Julie Wilhelmsen, asked Professor King in Oslo last week whether he saw signals of a major settlement with the Chechen regime. She pointed out that Chechens living in Norway have recently published
pressure that there has been a change in people's mentality in the North Caucasus – in a way that may indicate that they are no longer satisfied with Kadyrov's harsh governance.
The ties of the Kremlin. "Perhaps it is not a militant Islamic revolt, but a reaction to the fact that the Chechen society is now organized as a pyramid-shaped hierarchy of power, with only one man at the top – Kadyrov," Wilhelmsen said. "It is a power structure that is far removed from the traditional organization of Chechen society." The NUPI researcher is currently working on a book on the close relationship and the ties between the Kremlin / Moscow and Kadyrov regime.
King, for his part, sees no such signs and believes that the violence and the uprising in the Republic in December last year cannot be interpreted as increasing opposition to the regime. "On the contrary – the use of violence, terror and riots in the North Caucasus, and especially in Chechnya, has greatly reduced over the last five years," he points out. King points out that of the 341 killed in the conflict zones in 2014, 249 – or 73 percent – are militant rebels who were captured by days of Russian security forces. A total of 5816 people were reported killed in the period 2010–2014. These are death tolls that are roughly equivalent to the number of deaths in an American metropolis such as Chicago in one year, and the number of victims of violence has dropped dramatically, Professor King emphasizes. He also says that major terrorist acts are no longer carried out elsewhere on Russian soil or abroad – actions such as the bomb at Domodedovo airport (2012), the Moscow metro (2010), the school in Beslan (2004), the Moscow Northeast theater (2002) ), the Budjonovsk Hospital (2001) and the bomb on the express train between St. Petersburg and Moscow (2009).
Oriented to the south. "Russia has all the tools to conduct elections in Chechnya and the other North Caucasian republics, but does not. It would also not act as a valve that helps to cushion dissatisfaction in the current situation, ”says King. "Neither do the local leaders want to make elections – the only 'card' they have to play in a possible election is nationalism. Conducting elections therefore does not increase security in the region, ”he says.
The trend in the North Caucasus is that the population is increasingly disconnected from Russia.
He also highlights another important feature of developments in the North Caucasus: “The younger part of the population is less and less connected to Russia, both as a result of Russia's policy and as a result of the work to establish the Caucasian emirate, which is characterized and inspired by Muslims and militant Islamism, often with ISIS as a role model, ”says King. The youth of the North Caucasus, therefore, rather look up to and feel more drawn towards, among others, Turkey and other states south of the Caucasus that emphasize more radical Islamism.
On the other hand, it is a fact that all the terror associated with war and conflict with its origins in the North Caucasus and Chechnya in particular, has led Russians to easily stamp out anyone coming from this region as potential terrorists, criminals and unwanted in Russia. "It has led to stigmatization of entire groups of people, and has led many, especially the young, to seek other places for education and job opportunities," says King. "Russian authorities regard North Caucasus people as potential security threats and enemies of the Russian state."
The trend in the North Caucasus is that the population is increasingly disconnected from Russia, King claims. "The trend suggests that Chechnya and several sub-republics in the North Caucasus are unlikely to remain part of and belong to the Russian Federation in the future," the professor said.
Torvik Nilsen is a freelance journalist.
paul.t.nilsen@gmail.com
