(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
Thirty-one billion in tax relief, including the planned removal of the investment tax, combined with, in part, large spending increases for KrF's heart cases. It is a dream package presented by the three consecutive government parties. It's not going to last for five cents. Either the Right, the KrF and the Left will break the promises in the government declaration. Or worse: they are going to keep them. Twenty years ago, it took the bourgeois five years to throw the cards. We hope they spend less time this time.
The intermezzo from 1989 to 1990, when Reverend Jan P. Syse ruled with the KrF and the Center Party, received his final impasse in European politics. Willoch's government from 1981 to 1986, first the Right alone, later with Sp and KrF, lived longer and did more harm. First and foremost because it followed the same upswing that the Asker gang has now copied: Unrestrained use of state funds combined with liberalization of the economy and the reduction of political control. The result was an overheating of the Norwegian economy. One can always believe that the Labor Party believes too hard on the brake when they finally took over. But those who are reluctant to experience unemployment and interest rates from the late 1980s should shake their pants now. Only we who do not own a home can enjoy: When interest rates rise to seventeen and a half percent, we will buy the new debt slave apartments for the price of a subsidized electric car.
The Asker comrades' joint statement states that taxes will be reduced by 25 billion, in addition to the already approved removal of the investment tax of six billion. This does not just mean that the Conservatives have had a solid impact on their tax promises – despite Bondevik's warnings in the election campaign. It also means that they will use half of the Petroleum Fund's return for tax breaks. It may seem reliable that the return is distributed reasonably equally between the public and private sectors. What Bondevik seems to have overlooked is that the automatic growth in central government expenditure will increase dramatically in the years ahead – from the year before last year, expenditure increased automatically by NOK 14 billion. In the first three quarters of this year, they increased as much as in the whole of last year, and the final sum for 2001 will be even higher. In 2002, 2003, 2004 and so on, the automatic addition will continue to increase.
This is not play money that you can trick and mix with. Most of this is due to the fact that we are becoming more, and older, retired – and that public employees must also receive their share of wage growth. The truth is that these expenditures eat up very much of the overall growth of the economy even though the tax level is kept as it is today and even though welfare schemes are only maintained, not improved.
The Bondevik II government's second challenge is the glaring shortage of labor in the kingdom. This problem can basically be solved in four ways:
- One can qualify more unemployed for working life. The only problem is that many of the more than 60.000 unemployed have serious problems getting in. Because they live in the wrong place and have obligations that make them less mobile. Because they struggle with social problems that make them not work in working life. Or because they are unattractive to working life, for example due to weak Norwegian skills combined with prejudices among employers.
- You can get more part-time workers into full-time work, and home-based and students into working life. The planned increase in cash support is hardly a good contribution. And occupational participation in Norway is already very high.
- One can streamline the public sector (and private sector, for that matter). But rationalization processes often take an infinitely long time. They give no quick wins.
- One can open up for more labor immigration, but to which sectors? Many of those who came to Norway a quarter of a century ago went into manual production work that did not need violent qualifications. That kind of work is becoming less and less. Greater resources are now required for qualification, if not another Norwegian course. Where should Norwegian teachers be taken from? Bulgaria?
All these four measures are good measures. The problem is that they are not sufficient. And when the country's richest are to get more money in their pockets for private consumption and investments in new IT bubbles, the labor shortage will not decrease – neither for the nursing homes nor the competitive industry. Economists have pointed out that tax and duty relief puts less pressure on the economy than increased public spending. But the combination of such facilitations og increased spending at least puts pressure. Thus, one must choose: To distribute money through tax breaks or to increase expenses. And if you choose the former, there will be little money, and employees, again for nursing and daycare operations.
When Gro Harlem Brundtland took over after the Willoch government's eighties scale in 1986, one of the first things she did was to get an overview of the budgetary room for maneuver. It did not look good. The survey showed that 96,4 per cent of the state budget was somehow tied up. An article in Aftenposten in October last year showed that the number had increased to 98,9 percent – that is, that only 1,1 percent is money politicians can move around freely. Part of the restricted expenditure is not imposed on what the Ministry of Finance describes as "strong ties", but the proportion of less restricted expenditure has decreased since 1986. In other words, the room for maneuver is smaller than in 1986. Now the Asker gang will use the small room for maneuver, and well so, to tax breaks. It can only mean one thing: that other expenses will go down. But the government statement says almost nothing about how.
Just that aid should not be touched. That the cash subsidy should be increased. That the defense that should always have its. That paternity leave be extended. That kindergartens will be cheaper. That it must focus on alternative and renewable energy. That the municipal economy must be strengthened. That the number of hours in primary school should go up. That the teacher's salary should be differentiated (should the bad ones get less or the good ones get more?). That the subsidies to private schools will increase. That public transport will get a lot more money. That money will be spent on road construction. That the right to hospital treatment shall be legislated. That people in agriculture should have the same income development as the rest of society.
Good causes, most of it. But the money is given away. In tax relief.
The only thing that will help the situation is labor immigration and streamlining of the public sector. It is not enough. Therefore, Bondevik II will have to choose between tax cuts and expenditure increases. They are going to have to cut back on areas that they have not wanted to talk about now.
And if Bondevik's government fails to prioritize – which is not unlikely – then they will have to save themselves from disability with a cabinet question about increasing the petrol tax. And spend the next fifteen years crying crocodile tears over Carl I. Hagen overthrowing a bourgeois government.
