Nervous to the end

The opinion polls that filled the national and local newspapers in the days before the election hardly give good answers about how the constellations will be in Norwegian county councils and city and municipal councils. The only thing we know with reasonable certainty is this: The SV and the Progress Party will make good choices, compared to the local elections four years ago. Labor can experience progress compared to the parliamentary elections two years ago, but must struggle to match the local elections last. Christian People's Party is also struggling.

In addition, opinion polls show one in two: Either voters struggle to decide close to election day. Or pollsters struggle to capture what people think. Or a combination of the two. Most startling was the gap between Dagsavisen's and Aftenposten's popularity poll for Oslo politicians the week before the election: While Dagsavisen and MMI could tell that the people of Oslo wanted "Rune and Ellen" – ie the Labor Party's top candidates – Aftenposten and Opinion thought the Conservatives were most pop. It could almost be reminiscent of the renaissance of the party press. But it's probably more about the pollsters' problems.

Thriller in Oslo

Ny Tid has looked at local and central opinion polls from all over the country, to form a picture of how it is a few days before the election. In the capital, the left has had a small lead in several polls: They need 30 out of 59 city council representatives to win a majority. SV and the Labor Party have, thanks to SV's progress, had 28-29 seats, while RV has been at two. In other measurements, however, the sum for the three parties has only been 28 or 29 – including RV. With Venste and KrF safely placed in the city council with the Conservatives and Erling Lae, it means that the left in Oslo will have a tough battle to win power. None of the polls so far give good answers as to who wins – and none of them will do so before election day. The same applies to the question of who should possibly lead a red city council in Oslo: SV has been ahead of the Labor Party in most polls, and thus SV's Kari Pahle claims the city council leader stool, but in the latest polls SV goes back and the Labor Party in Oslo. Thus, Pahle may have to give up for Aps Rune Gerhardsen, even if it should be SV's progress that secures a red majority in Oslo.

Especially for SV, the Oslo election will be the most crucial. There, it is envisaged that a new AP / SV city council will form the basis for a formalized cooperation between the two parties at national level in 2005. If SV not only gets into city council, but also gets the city council leader, it is considered to be of great importance for the cooperation efforts. .

Tired of coffee?

Although local opinion polls suggest that coffee cravings are beginning to decline among Bergen residents a week before the election, coffee king and the Conservative Party's "mayor" candidate Herman Friele still has a fair chance of taking over the capital in the West. The Conservatives lose, because the FRP wins, and thus there are opportunities for a blue majority.

In central Norway's capital Trondheim, things are apparently going the opposite way, for Høyre's mayoral candidate Frank Jenssen scores so badly among the ladies that both the A and the SV are bigger than them. With 30 per cent, Aps Rita Ottervik is set to take over the Right City, but SV's Knut Fagerbakke has allied himself: At the tide of the election campaign, the SV, RV and the Environment Party have joined forces in an alliance, and say they want to negotiate with Ap as a block after election. And about the three parties overall support, which in the latest polls is about 25 percent, should be greater than Aps – yes, then the three parties demand that Fagerbakke become mayor.

End for Ap?

A swipe at Namos and Mo in Rana may be in place. In both of these cities, the Ap people have carried the mayor chain since the war, but the SV is doing its best to take it from them. In Namsos, the SV became the largest party already four years ago, after all the other parties except Frp agreed to a toll on which the population was skeptical. But rather than letting the SV get the mayor sought ap alliances to the right. This time SV has announced that they will do the same, if they are the biggest. Frp is already invited to electoral cooperation, in order for SVs Kåre Aalberg to become mayor.

In Mo i Rana, it is SV's former transport politician at the Storting, Inge Myrvoll, who has decided to become mayor. To that end, he apparently gets some help from the voters: Ap falls on a poll in Rana Blad just four days before the election, while SV goes ahead. With 33 per cent, against Aps 28, the chance exists for Myrvoll to become mayor.

Bodø, after all, remains to be judged red and with the Ap Mayor, while Harstad remains blue. In Northern Norway's capital Tromsø, Aps Herman Kristoffersen has supported SV for four years, but the latter are now ready for father murder. If they get more votes than Ap, Pia Svensgaard will become mayor, SV has stated. The Center Party in the city also gives its vote to Svensgaard, if they end up on the rocker.

The Center Party has adopted the same attitude on the very other side of the country. In the southern capital of Kristiansand, they have expressed the wish that SV's young top candidate Torbjørn Urfjell become mayor. SV has taken the Right on some polls in the city, but it still needs a bit more for the Christians to do something as unheard of as to make SV the biggest party.

Frp forward

The jump down to Southern Norway will not make us forget Finnmark. There, it seems that Aps's fall is not one of the biggest, while SV is falling. Admittedly, the party has lost support after the summer, but it is from such a high level that at the last measurement they are still twice as large as four years ago. One measurement gives SV and Ap a pure majority in the county, another indicates that they must have a chat with the middle parties. Right goes back to Finnmark, but Frp is about as much ahead.

This is an improvement that we find in most of the country's counties, in northern Norway, but also in western Norway. Those who wish for Frp's success can rely on NRK and the daily newspapers in Møre and Romsdal, who can report that the party entered the election campaign strongly and then increase. However, the address newspaper can tell that Frp has had a declining shape curve. Regardless, there is little doubt that people in Northwest Norway gather around Frp.

They do so further south in Western Norway: In Stavanger and Sandnes, a center-right alliance has kept Carl I. Hagen's men at arm's length. There may be an end to the election. In Sandnes, the alliance has had a scarce majority, and has not needed Frp, but the majority can slip. In Stavanger, they are already ruling on Frp's mercy, but with increased support, the Progress Party can claim to enter the heat.

The blue county?

The trend of progress for SV and Frp also holds true in Hedmark and Oppland, with the exception that it appears to apply primarily to Frp. Admittedly, SV is also progressing on the measurements, but Frp is making big bucks. This suggests that the red majority in Hedmark may disappear.

Also in Telemark, it is the FRP that does it well, while the SV in turn does it good or bad – a bit depending on the point of view: The party went into the election campaign with no less than one of four telemarkings in the back. Then a quarter of the 24 percent disappeared, and after that some more. With 15 percent, SV in Telemark can boast of a doubling from the local elections in 1999, but at the same time hardly any increase compared to the parliamentary elections.

And the rest?

And in the other counties? In general, the picture is this: Frp goes forward. So does SV, while the losers are often called Right and Ap. It can be mentioned that the SV shows up on Akershus measurements, something SVere in Oslo's surrounding area is not always spoiled for. In the past, the people of Akershus have never been fully involved when SV has done well. Now even the people of Bærums believe that SV is the second best party. Admittedly, holding on to its 40 per cent, the SV has thus passed the Labor Party.

In Vestfold, too, the two wing parties are moving forward and who are full of self-confidence in the mayor's acquisition. In that case, it will depend on wise negotiations with the other parties after the election.

In Aust-Agder, SV could hope for a tripling before the summer, but this has shrunk to "only" a doubling in recent months. FRP is again among the winners, while the people of southern Norway seem to have become more skeptical of KrF.