(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
On Monday, it became clear that Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has resigned from the presidential election following acts of violence and strong pressure from current President Robert Mugabe and his party ZANU-PF. This has caused the other countries in the region to react with much greater clarity than before. Zambia President Levy Mwanawasa, who also holds the chairmanship of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), has stated that the SADC can no longer remain silent about Mugabe's denial of democracy.
It is South African President Thabo Mbeki who has so far led the negotiations between the opposition and the government in Zimbabwe. His cautious tone and "quiet diplomacy" towards Mugabe have received increasing criticism from various quarters. Now Mbeki's party colleagues in the ANC have also expressed their full support for Tsvangirai – which testifies to a complete break with Mbeki's position, according to Johann Rossouw, editor of the South African edition of Le Monde Diplomatique.
"Mbeki is now truly a president without a party," he told Ny Tid.
– South African media have constantly reported great dissatisfaction within the ANC and in the alliance between the ANC, the trade union Cosatu and the South African Communist Party with how Mbeki has handled the crisis, Rossouw says.
ANC's internal divide
South Africa's trade union organization Cosatu, which has great influence in the country, has long supported Tsvangerai – who also has trade union affiliation. Mbeki's party colleague and expected buyer, the trade unionist Jacob Zuma, stood on the rostrum in Johannesburg on Tuesday and thundered against Mugabe. Zuma also has personal interests in criticizing Mugabe, Rossouw claims.
– Zuma probably understands that if he openly criticizes Mugabe, this will strengthen his chances of becoming president after Mbeki.
Mbeki has long been opposed to the domestic political scene in South Africa. Many have wanted his economic liberalism to replace a more market-regulating policy. South Africa is plagued by poverty, and Mbeki is considered the president of the small, wealthy elite.
- Mbeki in a way protects the interests of the elite in South Africa. His lack of respect for – and perhaps also fear of – Tsvangirai, is due to the fact that his victory can give union supporters in the area dangerous ideas, says Amin Y. Kamete, coordinator at the Nordic Africa Institute in Uppsala, and city planner at the University of Harare. He recalls that Cosatu is currently so large in South Africa that if Tsvangirai's supporters eventually win in Zimbabwe, the opportunities for new alliances in the region will be great.
This is also what Rossouw points out:
– There are many factors that come into play here – including how the situation develops in Zimbabwe, and whether Zuma really becomes president (he is charged with corruption and must appear in court in August this year, editor's note). What is certain is that at the same time as the change of president in South Africa, Zimbabwe will probably also get a new leadership. If Zuma actually becomes president, it is quite certain that we will also see a change of government in Zimbabwe – something that will facilitate relations between the two countries. These are, of course, speculations in a very fluid time.
- The legacy of apartheid
In addition to the fear of new alliances in the region, Mbeki's loyalty to Mugabe has historical causes, Kanete points out.
– Much of the explanation for Mbeke's loyalty to Mugabe is that he was taken care of – even if it was not in a particularly nice way – during the fight against apartheid.
Rossouw also emphasizes the historical ties between Mugabe and Mbeki.
– The inability to confront Mugabe is also due to the dictator's role as a father figure to Mbeki during apartheid – when he was in exile in Zimbabwe. Rossouw also mentions the role of Western countries in the president's position.
– It is also probable that Mbeki's mania when it comes to the West's general criticism of Africa, has led him to take sides with – if not Mugabe – then at least Mugabe's party ZANU-PF, against the Western world.
