(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
The Sri Lankan elections on April 2 gave support to President Kumaratunga, but without his own majority in parliament it is far ahead. The president will try to get through a constitutional amendment that gives her and the office more power at the expense of the prime minister. The question is whether peace negotiations will be easier after this.
divisions
Two years of ceasefire have created a new political reality in Sri Lanka. When the war was going on it was easy to forget internal contradictions in the different groups. Now that the possibility of a future without terror, war and disaster opens up, internal contradictions come to the surface. Some of these are old conflicts, others arise as a result of the power struggle over political leadership and resources becoming more acute. The elections in Sri Lanka have shown a split in almost all camps. The Tamils experienced that Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelan (LTTE) cracked, Sinhalese saw the abyss between the president and prime ministers open, the Buddhists showed a reactionary nationalist party alongside the Aryaratne's Gandhist Sarvodaya movement and Sri Lanka's Muslim Congress (SLMC) struggling to rally the country's Muslims. In the midst of this hot chaotic image we find the little cold country of Norway. What do they do there and how does Norway influence what happens?
Complex conflicts
From a distance, it seems that all conflicts are about two parties disagreeing. The two players who have been most prominent in the media image of Sri Lanka are the Tamil Tigers and the Sri Lankan state. But all conflicts are complex, have a long history and it is far to a stable and lasting peace. To understand what is happening, it is important to understand some of the complexities of these conflicts.
Some of the conflicts in Sri Lanka are rooted in the situation that arose when the third European occupier, Britain, gave the country independence in 1948. Previously, both Portuguese and Dutch had engaged in trade, Christian missionary work and large-scale robbery. The British's strong influence lasted long after the country became free. For ten years, Sri Lanka was ruled by Christian Sinhalese with English as their official language. A growing self-awareness of Sinhalese Buddhists resulted in Sinhalese becoming the only official language, and the state "protecting and nurturing" Buddhism. The election in 1956 was marked by the fact that it was also marked that it was 2500 years since the Buddha died.
The SWRD's Bandaranaike won the election in 1956, and despite the strong nationalist / Buddhist currents, he chose to negotiate with the Tamils for some form of autonomy in the north and east. As a result, he was killed by a Buddhist monk three years later. In the 1960 election, the widow of Bandaranaike, Sirimavo, was elected the world's first female prime minister. She continued her husband's nationalist politics. Among other things, she nationalized the oil companies and frightened British plantation owners.
The Tamils suppressed
In this process the Tamils became the big losers. Economic downturns, rising discrimination and Sinhalese patriotism made Tamils a threatened minority. In the early seventies, several segregation laws were passed. Several demonstrations went into violent clashes with police and military. The result was, among other things, that the state of emergency was announced for several years. The situation for the Tamils was deteriorating all the time.
In the mid-1983s, young leftist Tamils began an armed struggle for an independent Tamil state, Eelam. The clashes often resulted in many civilian victims. One of those at the time was Velupillai Pirapaharan, who later formed LTTE. In 2002, the gun barrel exploded when militant Tamils killed a military patrol in Jaffna. Sinhalese responded with massive attacks on Tamils throughout the island. Many hundreds were killed and several neighborhoods leveled with the earth. This year is considered the start of the civil war that has dominated the island until the ceasefire in XNUMX.
In this war, it is the LTTE, or Tigers as they are popularly called, that has received the most attention. They have been seen as brutal, dangerous, skilled and effective warriors. They have their ethnic base in the northern and eastern districts, but there are also many Tamils living in other parts of the country and there are large exile communities in many countries. From the outside, they have been extremely homogeneous, hierarchical and with strict discipline. The leadership has come from Jaffna and has roots in the casts of the merchants and fishermen. Over the centuries, these Hindu castes have engaged in smuggling and illegal trade in almost mafia-like forms. It is this organizational structure that the Tigers have inherited. No opposition has been allowed, and any disloyalty has resulted in his being eliminated. But the LTTE has allowed people to leave the country. There have been two reasons for this: They know that unmotivated soldiers are not good at combat and that the exile communities have been important sources of funding. A separate "tax collection system" has worked effectively both in Sri Lanka and in the countries where large groups of Tamils have settled. Now that there are second and partly third generation refugees in exile environments, it is no longer as easy to collect "taxes" in the USA, Europe and Australia, where large parts of the diaspora are located. This has led to some financial concern central to the LTTE.
From guerrilla to regular army
From being a guerrilla group trained by the Indian intelligence service, the Tigers have evolved into a regular army that a few years later was able to fight the Indian so-called peacekeeping forces that invaded Sri Lanka in 1987. A little later, they also repulsed Sri Lanka's own army in Jaffna. The military commander of these operations was Vinayagamoorthy Muraleetharan, aka Karuna – a man from the east coast of Sri Lanka. He has advanced in the LTTE for every military battle he has won. Rumors of his brutality and strength have no limits, and the surprise was great when he told the Norwegian negotiators on March 3 that he had broken with the LTTE's leadership in the northern province. Karuna had been actively involved in the peace negotiations and had been received with almost the honor of a statesman in several countries.
The confusion was great in Tamils worldwide following this message. Also very central people in the LTTE were very surprised. The consequences it will have for the peace talks are very uncertain.
Five days after the election, LTTE attacked Karuna's forces on the Verugal River. The outcome of these confrontations is uncertain. LTTE's propaganda apparatus tells of great progress, but we will probably have to wait weeks for the picture of what happens to be correct. The Red Cross in the area reports that at least three thousand people have fled the area so far. Much suggests that Tamils as a group will be weaker after this split. Sinhalese nationalists smile when they see that Tamils are fighting internally.
Why Karuna "started his own", no one knows for sure. There has long been discontent in the East because they feel discriminated against by their brothers and sisters in the North. The Eastern Tamils have sacrificed many more lives in the fighting and they have not received as much in return in terms of financial resources and leading positions within the LTTE. The Tamils in the central tea and rubber plantation areas are relatively unaffected by this. They belong to the late immigrants from India and are not as involved in this political struggle. But their economic and social situation is at least as bad as the Tamils in the eastern coastal areas.
How any continued negotiations after the new government is in place is also very uncertain. Another question, of course, is whether Karuna, whether he survives, can be a negotiating party in the time to come. No opposition or outbreak has been accepted in the past. They've all been killed.
President against the Prime Minister
On the Sinhalese side, the divide between the President and the Prime Minister has been a growing problem. President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga has long been criticized for exploiting his power. She has taken full advantage of the Constitution to strengthen her position. She herself has taken control of the Ministry of Defense, Mass Communication and the Interior Ministry. In addition, Kumaratunga has extended its own presidential term by two years. President is elected for seven years at a time, but she announced elections after five, and won again in 2000. Now, she claims that a ceremony was held in secret in 2002 and that from that time on her current presidential term should be considered. During the second round of Norwegian negotiations, it has been the prime minister who has been a party to the debate and the president has felt left out. She has repeatedly stated that the government has agreed to many of the Tamils' demands. Among other things, she strongly opposes the fact that the Tamils are provided with assistance directly from foreign organizations and states.
Both Norway and the UN have had their passports endorsed by Kumaratunga for being too "tiger-friendly". In connection with the election, her party, the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA), has included Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). This is a party with strong Sinhalese-chauvinistic features and a very violent history. The JVP boycotted the government's inauguration ceremony on April 11. This is one of the signs of the strong division within the new government. Another sign is that the new Prime Minister signed his own resignation application even before he was installed in office. This is to pave the way for a future amendment of the constitution that gives the president more control over the executive branch. The extremely nationalist-Buddhist party may also be part of a coalition that supports the president. No one expects that the coalition UPFA will form will have much left over for Tamil demands. And we do not know whether they want Norway as "facilitators" for continued negotiations.
Sri Lanka's economy has, despite the war, been growing in recent years. The ceasefire has given it even more momentum. A prosperity that has benefited the middle class is clearly visible in the capital Colombo. Growth has not been distributed to the poor, and class divisions are increasing in Sri Lanka. The government has even introduced various forms of "tax amnesty" for the richest. The business community wants stable and predictable conditions. This is necessary to get investment and to attract foreign capital. Before the election, the Joint Business Forum (JBF) expressed a desire for a strong government, regardless of which party it was led by. Japanese companies are expected to be at the forefront of foreign investors as the ceasefire becomes more permanent.
The role of Norway
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Oslo has recently changed the description of the role they have in the negotiation processes in which Norway is involved. It is now stated that "we only create the conditions" for the parties to be able to negotiate. Norway is no longer a dealer. This probably involves some accuracy. But it is not unproblematic to separate the process from the content in such contexts. "How", "with whom" and "where" are of course also political questions. Many on the state side of the negotiating table believe that Norway has done its part. Their support for the Tamils is so poorly hidden that they are seen as a party to the case. One of the most common positive comments one hears about Erik Solheim is that he has shown great patience. And that er an important feature of such jobs. Solheim and the Foreign Ministry will have a large part of the honor for the ceasefire. After 19 years of terror, abuse, massacre and civil war, ceasefire is a big step forward. But the difference between ceasefire and lasting peace is very big. It is now a completely different process that needs to be done. Far more must be invited to the negotiating table for a real peace to come true. It is the military players who can get a ceasefire, but they cannot build peace. Real peace will have to include many actors throughout the community og several external players.
India is on many lips as a possible heir to Norway, but after the unsuccessful invasion in 1987, they are probably hard to accept. At that time, the army and the Tigers helped each other to throw out the Indians. Some argue that the United States must come in with military force to create peace and order.
There is a big game with many players in this type of negotiation. Many of them are external. Norway is therefore careful to inform the affected states and plays a role in the conflict. India is regularly informed about the talks, Japan is kept informed and both the EU and the US have good insight into what is happening.
The suggestions for solution
When the LTTE proposed an interim agreement on October 31 last year, there was no official response from the government. They refused to participate in the talks as long as the President had taken control of the Ministry of Defense. The Tigers' wish was a temporary solution with a certain degree of independence for the districts in the north and east. This is a sketch that bears many similarities to the Tamils proposal in the fifties! For LTTE, there is no doubt that the requirement for an independent state is no longer applicable. Some kind of federation with internal independence is what they are now aiming for. This is very difficult to swallow for President Kumaratunga and her new government. But there may be other opinions that dominate if she gets involved in the peace agreements. It is something completely different to run an election campaign than to run politics. Politicians are not always to be judged by their most extreme rhetoric. Kumaratunga has already asked Norway to help resolve the conflict between the disputed Tamil factions.
As in all other wars, it is the civilian population that suffers the most in Sri Lanka as well. Large groups of internally displaced persons, many are driven into exile, they are damaged by mines, the war increases poverty and they are used as soldiers, in riots and as voice cattle. There was high turnout this time, and in a way "the people have spoken". Over twenty thousand election observers have given a temporary report that there was relatively little cheating and violence this time. 1400 cases of violence in the election campaign are an "acceptable level" in this country. Some candidates were killed and threatened, but this was far less than even the optimists had expected. Whether this election sticks in the wheels for the hope of a soon peace or whether it gives the talks new momentum remains to be seen. There are few at the grassroots who want more war and violence. War fatigue is palpable throughout the country.
