(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
Whether it is the success of the Swedish People's Party in the election last weekend that has led Edmund Stoiber, Bavarian Christian Democratic chancellor candidate ahead of the election on Sunday, to draw the brown card in the final stage of the election campaign, should not be said.
However, that is what he has done, after the Great Flood in East Germany and the US saber-rattling against Iraq punctured what appeared to be a victorious, albeit steady, march toward the job of Chancellor of Germany.
tactic Change
Stronger demands on immigrants, including learning German, combined with a tougher pro-war line than before, indicated a shift in tactics on the German right-hand side a week before the election. The hope is to get right-wing (or extreme) voters to vote for the Christian Democrats rather than the small parties on the far-right wing. But the shift in tactics is also a signal that Stoiber has given up the basic strategy: fishing voters at the center of German politics.
If so, much indicates that Stoiber is losing the battle in the final round. In Germany, it is not certain that appeals to people's xenophobia and hostility give victory on Election Day. Nor does the war rhetoric need to give Stoiber many votes.
The major flood
In any case, it means a clear break with the Christian Democrats' established strategy when the election campaign began. Wise from previous experiences, they prioritize reaching the center voters. They were then also, at the beginning of the election campaign, in the process of succeeding. Not least Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's old promise to bring unemployment below four million – something he has by no means managed – was a good shot for the right. Therefore, their recipe for lower taxes went home with many.
Then came the big flood, which also swept away the massive demand for lower taxes. Chancellor Schröder ruled that the tax cuts had to be deferred, and the money used instead for flood clearance. Thus, Edmund Stoiber was left with a black carpet.
War
When George W. Bush on top of it all wants to go to war against Iraq, Gerhard Schröder got another opportunity to show strength. In recent weeks, he has beaten his opposition to German participation in the war. Opinion polls show that he has overwhelming support in a Germany that is still – 57 years after the war trauma – more pacifist than other European countries.
In that situation, Stoiber first tried to deal with Schrøder, before he became more and more woolly about war participation. Now he has returned to the starting point – possibly in response to the criticism precisely that he is too woolly and fuzzy.
When the Christian Democrats now also put immigration on the agenda – and link it to the sky-high unemployment – he challenges two German post-war taboos at the same time: the military restraint and the generous immigration policy.
Can lose
However, political observers in the international press have little faith that Stoiber's change of tactics will bear fruit.
Most people point out that Christian Democrats may well get some votes on the right wing, but that the voter base there is so small that he quickly loses more center voters than he wins right voters.
Just days before the election in Germany, the polls show almost dead race. But much indicates that Gerhard Schröder is also Germany's Chancellor on Monday.
