(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
The United States has a problem. They have to get the war away before the heat sets in in the Iraqi desert. Therefore, it is to the advantage of the Americans if they can get the Security Council to agree that Iraq's behavior constitutes what goes by the term "material breach" already on 8 December. Then Baghdad will present a complete list of all its biological and chemical weapons, nuclear weapons, rockets and launchers – as well as all civilian programs involving chemical, biological or nuclear components.
If this list is not complete, if it is falsified or omitted, the United States will claim that Iraq has not fulfilled its obligations under Resolution 1441. In that case, there will be a debate in the Security Council on whether the US interpretation is correct and correct. If a majority in the Security Council copies the US position on "zero tolerance," it may decide that "all necessary actions" must be taken. Or it may refrain from adopting any resolution, and leave it to the United States to wage war alone.
There could be a heated debate in the Security Council if the Iraqis deliver an almost-complete list; with omissions but adequate enough that the Security Council will not start a war on the basis of it. Then the Americans will go new hard, rounds with the council, because it is an advantage for the United States that the military intervention is sanctioned by the UN – not least because of the Arab world.
The only reason the US spent two months on the Security Council this time around is because they also want the council in the next round. If the Security Council first said a, then they must also say b. By passing Resolution 1441 under Chapter Seven, the Security Council has taken a new, major step towards a war. And that's exactly where the United States wants them.
In fact, the Security Council can do nothing but decide to go to war against Iraq. The argument is based on the following logical progression:
Following the Gulf War, the Council adopted Resolution 687 under Chapter Seven. It is this section that obliges the UN – otherwise it can not be interpreted – to take "all necessary steps" against the country that violates its resolutions.
Chapter seven is the war clause in the Security Council. It is not used that often – for example, Resolution 242 against Israel is made under Chapter Six, which leaves it to the parties to negotiate an agreed solution. But in the Iraq issue, all the important resolutions are made under Chapter Seven. This means that the Council cannot maintain its credibility if it leaves the other party in a state of permanent breach of the collective will of the world community.
If this same world community – read the Security Council – concludes that Iraq does not comply with its resolutions, then they have, firstly, the right to launch a military attack. Eventually, there will also be a perception that they have a duty to implement "all necessary actions," because the council can not threaten war again and again without taking the consequences of what they do.
And this is exactly what President George W. Bush's message to the 15 members of the Security Council was when he spoke at the September 12 session. In fact, the Americans believed that the council had already placed itself in a situation where war should come, because in recent years it has adopted one resolution after another under Chapter Seven. But since the Security Council did not agree with this argument, but wanted a new resolution, it was not a bad solution for the United States because another resolution under the war clause would bring the Council even closer to a war.
Apart from this with time, then. By spending two months persuading at least nine of the council members to vote for a forceful resolution – while the other four regulars had to be pressured not to veto – time has begun to run out for the Americans. Therefore, they would like the Security Council to conclude with a "material breach" already in December, or preferably before. If that happens, in practice they will not have lost time at all, because the force building must go its own way anyway.
The incentives for war are many. At every crossroads, Americans will be able to claim that Iraq does not live up to its obligations.
The first crossroads is therefore 8 December. It takes a lot for Iraq to deliver a complete list of all its chemical and biological weapons, nuclear weapons, missiles and launch pads – plus all the civilian programs related to illegal substances. At present, the Iraqis claim that they have no illegal weapons, while the United States believes that there are up to a thousand suspicious places where the Iraqis possibly – or probably – store and produce illegal weapons.
This is a huge gap, and one can hardly imagine that Baghdad can fill this by suddenly admitting that they have a lot of illegal weapons programs, which both US and other Western intelligence believe they have.
And then there are a lot of small crossroads until inspectors submit their first report on February 23. The smallest obstacle on the part of Iraq; the first closed door or negligible obstruction by Saddam will send the inspectors right back to the Security Council to report. So will Iraqi attacks on US and British planes in the Prohibition Zone, if the United States gets it as they please.
It is equally difficult to imagine that Iraq will lay down so flat that no friction will ever arise between the Iraqi regime and the UN weapons inspectors and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
If the United States is lucky, they will have their war decision in the Security Council before Christmas. If not, they start on their own. Well, the United States is going to do its utmost to get the Security Council involved in the war. But are they willing, at worst, to postpone the war in the fall to join the rest of the world?
Absolutely not. The strengthening of the Gulf continues with full force, and tens of thousands of soldiers, weapons and equipment are already in place. It costs money to have them there, and it costs political reputation to postpone their use.
The military plans have been fine-tuned, and the propaganda apparatus has been set in motion. The Americans urge Iraqi generals not to resist in a war they are sure to lose. Flyers are being dropped, and US and British planes are in the process of "neutralizing" Saddam's military infrastructure.
The resolution in the Security Council is not a guarantee against, nor an obstacle to, the war, as some have put it. The war is coming, and Americans are vigorously betting that the regime will fall like a house of cards in a matter of days.
