(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
According to authors such as Edward Lucas and Robert Kagan, the time after the collapse of the Soviet Union was little more than a typical intermesso, and the dream of a softer world order was merely an illusion.
Aage Borchgrevink, author and adviser to the Norwegian Helsinki Committee, believes the recent week's events in the Caucasus confirm the world view the authors have drawn.
– This is partly an ideological conflict, partly an economic conflict. The latest events fit directly into Kagan's and Lucas' picture.
Yes, according to Lucas' book The New Cold War, it is precisely along Russia's borders that the next dangerous conflicts will emerge. So far, he seems to be right.
– The underlying topic here is a budding Russian empire. A classic imperialism is back, not only in the Kremlin, but also in the Russian media, says Borchgrevink.
As Lucas also points out, the Russians have developed a strategic concept where control of energy supplies has become more important than pure military power. Russia is Europe's largest supplier of oil and gas. There is also an oil pipeline through Georgia, and Borchgrevink believes the Russians have an ambition to have a say in the team as well when it comes to it.
"Besides having a certain military significance, as the city is a traffic hub and a marching area at the South Ossetia border, the city of Gori may have captured the interest of the Russians because the oil pipeline runs only a few kilometers south of the city," he says.
Georgia a democracy?
Both Kagan and Lucas call in their books for a democratic front against a newly authoritarian Russia. In Kagan's world, as he portrays it in The Return of History and the End of Dreams, the whole and the half diatoms are on the ropes, and so he wants a concert of democracies that can withstand the pressure. Translated into current circumstances, it should mean a stronger opposition to Russian use of force against Georgia.
However, Borchgrevink is skeptical that Mikhail Saakashvili's South Caucasian republic deserves the term democratically. Rather, he believes that the Georgian march in South Ossetia must be understood as a result of the president's problems at home.
Last fall there were major demonstrations in Tiblisi, and during the election, as Borchgrevink observed closely, there were a number of irregularities. Saakashvili has also done his job to stun the free media and gain control over the judiciary.
– This war is a direct and logical consequence of the undemocratic regime Sakashvili has built up. He led a democratic revolution in 2003, and at first it seemed that Georgia was on the right track, but in recent years he has formed a kind of Belarus in miniature, says the Helsinki adviser.
He believes that this has been under-communicated in the coverage of the conflict, and points out that Saakashvili controls 80 percent of parliament and that 99,7 percent of prosecution's charges end up in judgment.
– It does not exactly indicate real democracy and a well-functioning rule of law. Georgia still has the potential for democracy, but developments have gone in the wrong direction in recent years.
When Borchgrevink was an election observer, he saw closely how Saakashvili's regime has fueled the tensions of the breakaway republic. A shooting episode on Election Day was portrayed as an attack by the separatists, but the scene of the attack indicated that it was all staged to ensure higher support for the president.
– That type of episode would have been investigated if there had been a real opposition and independent media. And then the local tensions would be less, says Borchgrevink.
Statoil should create funds
The Americans, in turn, have run into a dilemma.
– For what can you do, Borchgrevink asks.
Diplomatic reactions are possible, and Georgian Special Forces can be flown home from Iraq, but beyond that, there are few action options behind the harsh words, he says.
In the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia needed loans, and with an oil price of around $ 10 a barrel, there was relatively little to gain from exports. Now the situation has turned on its head, making it far more difficult for Europe to criticize Russia.
– It is obviously an important aspect, and there are many examples. The cautious reactions to what happened in Chechnya must be understood against the same background. And something similar is seen now.
Borchgrevink believes that Norway has more room for maneuver as we do not depend on Russian energy imports.
– But Norwegian policy towards Russia is to walk quietly in the doors, he says.
- Should Norwegian companies, which are involved in Russia and with the Russian oil industry, have ethical concerns?
- That's a good question. I think a minimum requirement for StatoilHydro is that they think holistically about this when they do business with Gazprom, which to some extent is the Kremlin's extended arm, and that they give something back to the parts of Russian society that are under the greatest pressure – independent media and organizations for example. I think they should create a fund for this purpose.
