(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
It's early morning. Ten miles northeast of Damascus, along the road from the Iraqi border comes the four-wheel drive. They have mattresses on the roofs, families in the back seats. One driver, Haidar Ali, mourns a son shot by the Americans. Another, Husseini, lost his brother to the Shiite militia. Drivers, like the refugees they unload across the border from Iraq to Syria, are victims of the violence that has consumed most of the Baghdad area. Victims of a malfunctioning administration that cannot offer services such as electricity or clean water. Or security. Victims of a wave of executions and kidnappings carried out by the Shi'ite Mahdi Army and the Sunni Muslim Omar Brigades.
Will not return
When Ny Tid met Ali and Husseini in June, they made the tour of Damascus-Baghdad three to five times a month, if security allowed. The American offensive in Baghdad was in its initial rounds, the violence in the area drove 1000 refugees across the border into Syria daily. But since the summer, reports from Iraq have become more optimistic. In a press release on March 4, the US Department of Defense claimed that the situation is now so much better that Iraqi refugees are on their way back to their homes.
But the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Syria sees little improvement five years after the 20 invasion. March 2003.
- The refugees are constantly entering Syria. Towards the end of last year, some people started thinking about going home, the Iraqi embassy arranged a convoy of 3-400 people. At the same time, we conducted a survey among the refugees about the possibility of return. Those considering returning to Iraq stated economic reasons or trouble with their Syrian visa as the reason, says Sebylla Wilkes at the UNHCR's Damascus office.
Less violence
The mood of 1,5 million displaced Iraqis in Syria is a good indicator of how the Iraqis themselves are experiencing the situation. Together with half a million Iraqis in Jordan, and 2,4 million displaced internally in Iraq, these refugees make up the largest group of refugees in the Middle East since the displacement of Palestinians from what was to become Israel in 1948. Currently, UNHCR is conducting a survey of Iraqi personnel among refugees in the Damascus area.
- Their impression so far is that the majority of the refugees will not return now due to the still uncertain security situation. According to the refugees, only a few areas have become safer, Wilkes tells Ny Tid.
The Americans' optimistic reports have something to offer. The violence appears to have eased somewhat in the central parts of Iraq. But the starting point has also been very bad. The two years behind it, 2006 and 2007, were, according to many analysts, the bloodiest in the five-year-old war over Iraq. The bombing of the Shiite shrine in Samarra in February 2006 triggered a wave of attacks between different militia groups. In Baghdad, this violence led to entire neighborhoods being regularly cleansed of Sunni Muslims, Christians, Iraqi Palestinians or other minorities the death squads wanted. Some of these groups took revenge on Shiite neighborhoods.
The methods were kidnapping, rape and executions. In mid-2007, 10 to 40 bodies were found each day, often mutilated and tied up behind bridges and in desolate places in the Baghdad area. The Tigris River, which cuts between Sunni and Shiite areas in Baghdad, was also a favorite dumping ground for the militia. The Americans did little about it, the newly trained Iraqi police forces were often so infiltrated by the militia groups that they saw a different path. Based on the statistics from the Iraqi authorities, the situation in Baghdad has improved. In February 2008, 633 people were killed in acts of violence against 1801 people in February last year. The number of wounded has also decreased. At the same time, the number killed in February was slightly higher than in January, mainly due to several bombings in markets in Baghdad.
There are three reasons why the violence in Iraq has decreased, according to Baghdad-based security analyst Nasser Oman Hassan. He tells the UN news agency Irin that 30.000 extra US troops in the Baghdad area have had some effect. In addition, the United States has engaged Sunni militias in the areas around Baghdad in the fight against more extreme groups, such as the "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI), a collection of groups inspired by al-Qaeda.
Al-Sadr's ceasefire
But the main reason why fewer bodies appear along the riverbank in Baghdad is Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr's ceasefire from last year. Al-Sadr has gradually regained control of the Mahdi army in the Baghdad area, the militia accused of clearing entire neighborhoods of Baghdad of Sunni Muslims.
Hassan's analysis is supported by a recently published report by the think tank International Crisis Group (ICG). Through a series of in-depth interviews in Baghdad and the surrounding area, the ICG points to an internal dynamic in Muqtada al-Sadr's circle and in the Mahdi army. The bombing of the shrine in Samarra in 2006 was used by the Mahdi army as a pretext for a wave of violence in Baghdad that even al-Sadr did not seem to have control over.
The violence, in turn, triggered retaliatory attacks by Sunni Muslims who further radicalized the Shiite militia. The situation was also used for large-scale looting of Sunni Muslims' properties, and there are many indications that the motivation for parts of the militia was pure profiteering. But since Muqtada al-Sadr declared a ceasefire in August 2007, he has now gained greater control of the militia. At the end of February, Al-Sadr extended the ceasefire until August this year.
Humanitarian disaster
Although violence appears to have subsided in central Iraq and continued ceasefire in Baghdad is promising, both externally and internally displaced Iraqis have little to return home to. In November, the UN announced that only one in three children under the age of five had access to clean water. One in seven Iraqis needed food aid. In addition, very few Iraqis have access to electricity for more than a few hours a day. These figures apply to the whole of Iraq, including the relatively stable Kurdish areas in the north and the Shiite Muslim south. The worst situation is for 2,3 million IDPs who are also struggling with a roof over their heads.
And although violence has subsided in Baghdad, reconstruction is slow. The UN, which withdrew its international personnel from Iraq in August 2003 following a bomb attack on UN headquarters in Baghdad, plans to strengthen its presence in the country. Other international organizations keep a low profile. Among the Norwegian organizations in Iraq are Norwegian People's Aid and Norwegian Church Aid. The latter informs Ny Tid that the organization is based on local employees to maintain activities it has been doing since 1997.
The insecurity and violence in many places in Iraq, and the generally difficult humanitarian situation, mean that five years after the invasion, the UNHCR will not yet advise Iraqis to return to their homes. Neither to Baghdad nor anywhere else. At the office in Damascus, employees believe they have plenty to do for some time to come.
- We advise no one to go back right now. The criteria for return have not been met. But if some refugees want help with repatriation, we will of course help, says Sebylla Wilkes at UNHCR's Damascus office.
