oil curse

For although diamonds have gained a bad reputation in the last decade for spreading war and unrest on the African continent, there is still nothing as potentially destabilizing as possible oil discoveries. Only in recent weeks have possible oil deposits threatened to derail several of the continent's peace processes, including in Congo-Kinshasa and Sudan. And the more extensive the oil race becomes on the continent, the more areas at risk of suffering the black curse.

The destabilizing properties of the oil have long been debated in Africa. As in the Middle East, oil wars are nothing new, the oil has been a participant in civil wars and coups in both Angola, Congo-Brazzaville, Sudan and Nigeria for decades. The oil also has a reputation as a guarantor of some of the continent's most authoritarian regimes, such as Libya and Algeria. The five largest oil producers in Africa, Algeria, Angola, Libya, Nigeria and Sudan are all characterized by authoritarian rule and / or civil war.

Both in Nigeria and Angola, the locals in the oil-rich areas, the Niger Delta and Cabinda respectively, have resorted to weapons against the central government and the oil sector, in which case the oil itself is a triggering cause for unrest.

The curse

But oil not only triggers wars, it also tends to slow development in African countries. If you look down on the list of Africa's oil producers you will find countries such as Chad, Congo-Brazzaville, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon. Among the 20 largest oil countries in Africa, four of them are among the twenty least developed countries in the world, according to the UN Living Conditions Index. The oil country Norway tops as known the same list. For example, a country such as Angola, which is believed to be on an equal share of the world's oil reserves as Norway, is 160 places below Norway, 16 places from the Niger base.

The reason why oil does not necessarily mean poverty reduction has been tried to explain by referring to the so-called "Dutch disease". The oil, which creates quick and easy profits for those who control it, does not necessarily stimulate the development of other business or infrastructure. Thus, oil producers end up as modern "banana republics", raw material producers who are completely dependent on the market price of a commodity.

And the higher the market price, the less those who control the raw materials need to differentiate their own business base.

Africa's First World War

Oil is also a potential threat to a number of peace processes in Africa. On the border between Congo-Kinshasa and Uganda lies idyllic Lake Albert. But like its siblings Edward, Kivu and Tanganiyaka, Lake Albert's idyllic surface hides stories of border smuggling, resource struggle and war. Uganda was one of the countries that participated in "Africa's First World War", the war in Congo in 1997-2003. After Uganda withdrew in 2003, the border has been relatively calm, until July this year. Several Ugandan soldiers were arrested on the west shore of Lake Albert in Congo-Kinshasa. In August, Congolese responded with an attack on a Canadian oil exploration fleet moving near the same location. In Kinshasa, Uganda is now being accused of trying to plunder possible oil sources under the lake that may possibly belong to Congo. Uganda, for its part, has accused both Congolese troops and the UN force in the area of ​​trying to kidnap oil workers searching the area. In September, there were several clashes around the sea, with a few dozen dead on each shore. The problem is that there is no proper boundary line under the sea, where Uganda expects to start extracting oil from 2009. In early October, a British oil worker was killed at sea.

Black smoke also threatens the view of the Horn of Africa. Earlier this year, Chinese companies looking for oil and building test fields in Ethiopia's Ogaden province became targets of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) guerrilla group. ONLF, which wants greater autonomy for the Somali-speaking region of eastern Ethiopia, attacked an oil field near Abola, killing 65 Ethiopians and nine Chinese in April this year. Since then, Addis Ababa has seen growing concern that troops from Somalia's Islamic Council (UIC) have sought refuge in Ogaden, after Ethiopia's own troops deployed them in Somalia last year. For both the Somali rebels and Ogaden's own guerrillas, the newly created oil fields are a favorite target for hitting Addis Ababa.

In the shadow of Darfur

Even further east, in Somalia itself, rumors of black gold have messed it up even further for the country's interim government. The Somali Transitional Government (TFG) was deployed by Ethiopian troops in 2006 after several years in exile in Kenya, among other places. From its seat in Baidoa, the transitional government has looked with interest at oil exploration taking place off the coast of the country, they just have not climbed to agree on who will get the licenses. The TFG is also concerned about further unrest in Ogaden, the last time Ethiopia and Somalia were in direct war with each other was just over this province in 1977-78.

In the shadow of the tragedy in Darfur, the peace process between North and South Sudan has also stalled. The disagreement is about a profit-sharing agreement for oil fields in Abyei, which is in an area under shared control by the authorities in the north and the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) in the south. Since 1999, when an oil pipeline from the central part of the country to the Red Sea was opened, Sudan's oil exports have increased significantly. This has enabled the state to continue the war against its own people in Darfur.

oil game

Behind the increased tension in oil-rich parts of Africa is, of course, more a local interest. The race for Africa's oil resources is also a race between China and the United States, which in a few years can get 25 percent of its oil from Africa. It is no coincidence that it was the Chinese who were attacked in Ethiopia and that it is the Chinese who, together with the Russians, are building oil pipelines in Sudan. It is also no coincidence that the Americans are among the most active in building infrastructure and in oil exploration in West Africa. The situation in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices are making Africa's oil more and more attractive, even to those below ground during war zones. Africa has around ten percent of the world's proven oil reserves, in comparison Norway has seven per thousand. In addition, eight percent of the world's gas resources are located under the African continent. On the North and West African continental shelves, Norwegian companies, prominently among them the newly merged StatoilHydro, are also fighting for licenses with both the Chinese and the Americans. The new company has licenses in eight African countries, three of which, Algeria, Angola and Nigeria, are experiencing internal unrest. One, Morocco, occupies a neighboring country, Western Sahara. Two of the countries are criticized for widespread human rights violations, Egypt and Libya. The two remaining countries are newcomers to the oil race and both occupy the bottom position on the UN living conditions index, namely Mozambique (168) and Tanzania (162).

Sources: International Crisis Group, Oil Market report-International Energy Agency, Proven Gas and Oil Reserves, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Human Development Report (UNDP), StatoilHydro, BBC, Reuters