(THIS ARTICLE IS MACHINE TRANSLATED by Google from Norwegian)
"A global plan for phosphorus recycling is needed!" The researchers stated at the first Nordic phosphorus conference, which took place in Malmö in October. But although scientists have long been alert to the problem, the matter has not been given much attention. And so far, there are no plans, neither national, regional nor international.
At the same time as both the number of people and meat consumption are rising, the world's phosphate reserves are running out. Exact figures do not exist, but researchers estimate that it is a maximum of a few hundred years until it is completely over, and that the peak of extraction – "Peak Phosphorus" – will be reached within the next couple of decades.
All living organisms depend on phosphorus (a element with the symbol P in the periodic table), which thus occurs in nature as phosphate. We humans get phosphorus in us through the food we eat, which in turn comes from phosphorus that plants take up through the soil. No access to phosphorus, no plants. No plants, no food.
Unless consumption is radically reduced, this will lead to sharply rising prices and a worldwide food crisis in our lifetime.
In earlier times, phosphorus in agriculture came mostly from animal manure, but today the majority of active agricultural areas rely on artificial fertilizers added to phosphate-containing minerals, which are extracted through mining.
Phosphate stones, which have been formed over 10-15 million years, are now being picked up and used in record speed. About 90 per cent goes to the production of mineral fertilizers for agriculture.
Natural laws meet geopolitics. The problem with phosphorus is complex. Mining is in itself problematic from an environmental perspective, because it leads to the release of heavy metals and other environmentally harmful substances, in addition to major encroachments on nature. Eventually, when the mines with the highest quality of phosphate rock are tapped, the available minerals will be both more expensive and more difficult to extract, and they will have an increasing content of heavy metals.
Phosphorus overuse is widespread on all continents and is defined as a serious problem by the authorities in Norway as well. Over-consumption leads to runoff in rivers, watercourses and groundwater, which in turn leads to algae bloom. Such algae can cause undesirable overgrowth, and not least, they can poison drinking water and kill vulnerable animal and plant life.
The phosphorus problem is further complicated by the fact that the remaining phosphate reserves in the world are distributed over only nine countries, many of which are located in unstable areas. There is phosphate in Morocco (including occupied Western Sahara – which makes imports from here particularly problematic), Algeria, Syria, Jordan, South Africa, Russia, China, the United States and Australia. Of these, all, with the exception of Morocco, which controls as much as 75 percent of the total phosphate reserves, are running out. The United States, formerly the world's largest producer, exporter, importer and consumer, will be completely empty in about 20 years. China, for its part, has introduced a 135 percent export tax to secure its own supply, thus putting an effective stop to international exports. From a geopolitical point of view, it can be argued that phosphorus is an important security policy issue.
Europe, including Norway, is today completely dependent on importing phosphate for fertilizers. Unlike oil, which can at least be partially replaced by other energy sources, there is no substitute for phosphorus. All import-dependent countries are thus exposed to price fluctuations in the international market, and the most vulnerable are poor farmers in poor countries. We got a taste of what "Peak Phosphorus" can mean in 2008, when the phosphorus price increased by more than 800 percent and was a contributing factor to the serious food crisis. Across the southern hemisphere, there were riots among poor people who could not afford their daily bread, and in India, thousands of farmers committed suicide.
The most vulnerable are poor farmers in poor countries.
The main problem is that we are in the process of completely using up a limited resource that we all depend on to survive. And even if one chooses to believe the most optimistic estimates of how long the world's phosphorus reserves will last, that is, a few hundred more years, both economists and history tell us that the mines do not have to run empty for there to be significant price increases with fatalities. consequences. With today's production patterns, all countries' food security depends on a raw material over which we have no control.
What can be done? The problem with a capital P is probably not impossible to solve. In that case, political will must be combined with the right technology and implementation power. In 2015, Al Jazeera showed how a plant in London, as the first in Europe, produces manure from sewage, and in this way recycles phosphorus from human faeces. In the same year, the Norwegian Environment Agency published a report entitled «Better utilization of phosphorus in Norway: Opportunities and recommendations». It is stated here that the current consumption of phosphorus is not sustainable, but that there is "a great potential to utilize a larger proportion of the phosphorus that is in circulation in Norway better". This can be done, among other things, by limiting over-fertilization: Today, more than half of the phosphorus that is spread on Norwegian fields is superfluous. It is not taken up by the plants, but is instead stored in the soil, or flows into rivers and watercourses. In addition, around 9000 tonnes of phosphorus are lost each year in the fish farming industry, and large amounts of phosphorus in sewage sludge are also deposited in the soil without being utilized. In both cases, the phosphorus loss is expected to increase in the years ahead: The aquaculture industry is growing, and new treatment plants along the coast will produce more sewage sludge. The Norwegian Environment Agency points to several areas with great potential for improvement, and states that "if the phosphorus is utilized better, the import of mineral phosphorus can be reduced considerably". So far, unfortunately, very little has happened, and regardless of whether one succeeds with "increased reuse", as the Norwegian authorities want, it does not change the fundamental problem: that we are dependent on a non-renewable resource that is about to take end.
At the political level. One of the world's leading experts in the field is Dana Cordell at the University of Technology in Sydney, who was one of the initiators of the Global Phosphorus Research Initiative and runs the website PhosphorusFutures.net. She thinks it is worrying how little attention this problem receives, and that there is a total lack of political leadership. Despite the fact that the element is recognized as one of the world's most critical resources, no international organizations are taking responsibility for global phosphorus security in the long term. There is also no proper independent research with reliable figures regarding the world's remaining phosphate reserves, production and trade.
It may seem that neither Norwegian politicians nor international leaders dare to say out loud what is really needed to ensure phosphorus access and food security: a complete change in the way we produce food. We must move from industrial agriculture based on monocultures and over-consumption of fertilizers and pesticides, to sustainable small-scale agriculture that may provide a slightly lower return in the short term, but which can ensure humanity access to food well into the future.
What is certain is that more knowledge and focus is needed on "Problem P". Norway must develop a national strategy that is much more ambitious than what the Norwegian Environment Agency proposes, and pressure must be put on to find international solutions. Because we need a plan.
Heiberg is a new writer for MODERN TIMES.
She is a master's student in global studies.
sigrid.heiberg@gmail.com
